The Solomon Islands switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the People's Republic of China in September 2019. The following month, its Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare received an honour guard in Beijing in the company of Premier Li Keqiang. Recently, the islands signed a security pact with China - one whose contents are yet to be made public, but deemed serious enough to merit a visit to capital Honiara last week by Mr Kurt Campbell, United States President Joe Biden's key adviser on the Indo-Pacific. There is concern in Washington that this could be a prelude for China to establish a military base in the Pacific island nation, and the US has warned that these concerns would draw a response.

The Solomon Islands has cast the move as one that diversifies security partnerships, and that is prompted by worries about the impact that climate change is having in the area. Addressing Parliament on March 29, Mr Sogavare said it is "very insulting to be branded as unfit to manage our sovereign affairs or have other motives in pursuing our national interest". That said, it would be prudent on his part to not overplay his hand. Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia - a powerful neighbour of the islands and key ally of the West - has unequivocally said a Chinese military base in the Solomon Islands would constitute a geostrategic "red line". Indeed, Canberra's assessment is that this may happen within a year.