A conflict that has dragged on too long

As the war in Ukraine grinds on there is little evidence of meaningful steps to bring it to a halt. Casualties mount; by some accounts, both Russia and Ukraine have suffered more than 100,000 deaths each. Ukraine’s back has been stiffened by an influx of Western weapons and aid. Moscow hopes to use the icy cold weather of winter as a weapon to subjugate Kyiv, and is assiduously exacerbating the hardship with sustained strikes on the Ukrainian power grid and heating systems. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has argued that the energy grid in Ukraine has been subordinated to the military interests of Kyiv and is thus a legitimate military target.

A new pressure point on Moscow is the announcement by the Group of Seven (G-7) of price caps on Russian oil, a move Moscow has rejected and vowed to resist. The thinking is that putting a US$60 a barrel ceiling on Russian exports of the commodity will curtail Moscow’s ability to finance the war. Whatever this club of developed nations may think, it is not at all clear if the imposition of a price cap will work. If Russian President Vladimir Putin decides he will not sell energy except at prices that he determines, the situation could get seriously complicated. It is one thing for an energy self-sufficient United States to force price caps, but quite another for energy-deficient Europe to go along with it, regardless of the need to display strategic solidarity.