As the northern hemisphere moves into winter, coronavirus rates are rising in parts of Europe and the United States. Experts are warning of a long winter ahead as Covid-19 and influenza put the squeeze on hospitals and other healthcare facilities. In response to the threat presented by the second wave, European countries and many US states have instituted population lockdowns that involve varying restrictions on movement, meeting people, work, schooling, shopping, hospitality and entertainment.

We have seen from the first wave that, when instigated at scale, these measures can shrink the epidemic but at a tremendous cost to society and economic life. When applied for a long time such as in Melbourne, Australia, which locked down for nearly four months, the number of cases can be reduced to close to zero with rigorous wearing of masks, night-time curfews, school closures, strict travel restrictions and heavy policing.