Israel and Iran have just delivered the US election’s ‘October surprise’

For the past year, the Biden administration has struggled to prevent a regional war in the Middle East, fearing that it might draw in the US or wreak havoc on the world economy.

This policy is now very close to failing. For the second time in 2024,

Iran has fired missiles at Israel

, and the

US has helped Israel to shoot down the missiles

. Mr Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Adviser, has promised that there will be “severe consequences” for Iran and said the US will “work with Israel” to ensure that this is the case. That sounds ominously like a threat of joint US-Israeli military action against Iran.