Globalisation is not dying, it's changing

Evidence suggests that natural economic forces have largely been responsible for past changes in the pattern of world trade which was driven largely by industrialisation. Technology is now opening up new areas of growth in services.

In all, the evidence suggests that natural economic forces have largely been responsible for past changes in the pattern of world trade. PHOTO: EPA-EFE
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What is the future of globalisation? This is among the biggest questions of our time. In June, I argued that, contrary to increasingly widespread opinion, "Globalisation is not dead. It may not even be dying. But it is changing". Among the most important ways in which it is changing is via the growth of services provided at a distance.

Since the Industrial Revolution, we have, argues Professor Richard Baldwin in his book The Great Convergence, seen three waves of opportunities to trade. First, industrialisation and the revolution in transport generated opportunities for trade in goods. More recently, new information technologies allowed "trade in factories": It became profitable to move entire factories to where labour was cheap. Today, however, the broadband Internet allows "trade in offices": If one can work for one's employer from home, someone in India can do so, too.

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