As China prepares for its 20th National Congress in October, when President Xi Jinping is expected to accept an unprecedented third term, many observers worry about uncertain days ahead, especially regarding Taiwan. But one doesn't need a crystal ball to glimpse its future. China's leaders, for their part, are looking at Russia.

China has mirrored Russia's historical trajectory for most of the past 100 years. At the beginning of the 20th century, both were large empires with outdated institutions that could not protect their people from foreign wars, corruption, inequality and poverty. While Russia's per capita income in 1900 was around one-third that of the United States, Chinese incomes were half those of Russia.