Australia and Asia must make common cause in an uncertain world

Australia’s engagement with the Asia-Pacific traces back almost a century.

Australia has been involved in every major conflict here, beginning with World War II. Then, Australian troops fought bravely in South-east Asia, suffering many casualties. Thousands were incarcerated in Changi Prison as prisoners of war (POWs).

Till today, former POWs and their families visit the Changi Chapel – a powerful symbol of quiet defiance and spiritual resilience.

After the war, Australia continued to play a major security role in the region.

The British withdrawal from East of Suez in the late 1960s left Malaysia and Singapore exposed and vulnerable. In 1971, Australia joined the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) to strengthen their security.

Till today, the Royal Australian Air Force regularly deploys fighter jets and maritime patrol aircraft to Malaysia and Singapore. In a totally different strategic environment, these half-century-old defence arrangements have found new relevance.

Beyond the FPDA, Australia has kept up extensive defence ties across the region.

Australia hosts Exercise Pitch Black for air forces from many countries, including Singapore. The Royal Military College, Duntroon has educated generations of foreign officer cadets. We have built familiarity and trust with each other. When Singaporean and Australian troops serve alongside each other in UN and international operations, as we did in East Timor, Afghanistan and the Middle East, we interoperate well.

Australia’s economic ties with the Asia-Pacific are likewise extensive.

Historically, its trade was predominantly with Britain and the Commonwealth. But after Britain turned to Europe, and as the Asian economies took off, the centre of gravity shifted.

Today, Australia’s biggest trading partner is China. Australia’s next biggest trading partner is South-east Asia. Even the US only ranks third. Australia exports to Asia not just minerals and goods like iron, coal, beef and wine; but also services like education and tourism.

Beyond trading, Australia has actively fostered regional economic integration.

In the late 1980s, the idea of an Asia-Pacific economic grouping was in the air. Several countries tried to crystallise the concept. But in the end, it was deft Australian diplomacy that brought together 12 economies to form the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) group.

Today, APEC comprises 21 economies, accounting for over three-fifths of global GDP and almost half of world trade.

More recently, Australia played an important role in creating the CPTPP – the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

After the US pulled out at the eleventh hour, Malcolm Turnbull worked actively with Abe Shinzo of Japan to push the deal forward with the remaining 11 countries. The result was the CPTPP – an important trade agreement in its own right.

Post-Brexit, the UK has now joined the CPTPP, and several more applicants are in the queue. None of this would have happened but for Australia’s leadership, and its steadfast commitment to free trade and regional integration.

Another important aspect of Australia’s links with Asia is our people-to-people ties.

The Colombo Plan brought thousands of students to study in Australia from the 1950s onwards. Quite a few of my own classmates in school, and colleagues in government, were Colombo Plan scholars. Without these scholarships, they might not have been able to afford a university education, and certainly not one overseas.

The New Colombo Plan, launched by Tony Abbott and Julie Bishop (in 2014), goes in the outbound direction. It has enabled 55,000 young Australians to experience Asia, forging understanding and connections among a new generation.

When Singapore and Australia were negotiating our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (in 2016), Australia proposed work-holiday visas, for youths on both sides to experience each other’s countries.

Our officials had concerns that Australian youths, boisterous and unused to Singapore’s strict rules, might get into trouble. But I overruled the reservations and we proceeded. The scheme has worked well; youthful exuberance has not proved a problem.

On a personal note, as a teenager, I visited Australia on a student exchange. I stayed with a family in Melbourne, and have kept in touch with them all these years.

Such personal ties and experiences, multiplied many-fold, have helped Australians and Asians befriend each other, and work well together.

The evolving strategic environment

Australia’s engagement of Asia took place within an evolving strategic environment: from the British Empire, through the British withdrawal from East of Suez, to the Pax Americana, through the rise of China still within Pax Americana, and now to a more hotly contested Asia-Pacific region.

Australia’s policy reflected historical and kinship ties, but also objective assessments of its own national interests. Successive Australian governments recognised a fundamental reality – that Australia’s security and prosperity are inseparable from South-east Asia and the Pacific. As Robert Menzies famously put it, Asia is not Australia’s Far East, but its Near North.

On their part, regional countries have welcomed Australia’s engagement.

Australia has brought capabilities and resources, and contributed to regional stability and prosperity. It supports institutions and principles that matter to us: a global order based on international law, especially freedom of navigation under UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea).

Australia’s close links with the US on one side, and with the region on the other, have helped to foster an open and inclusive region, and to prevent rival closed blocs from forming on opposite shores of the Pacific.

A changed world

Now, the global environment has changed significantly.

Great power rivalry is intense. Multilateralism is breaking down. The US – the erstwhile anchor of the global order – is reassessing its role in the world. National security and resilience increasingly claim precedence over economic efficiency. Trade dependencies are being weaponised. Interdependence, once valued as a source of stability and mutual benefit, is now viewed as a strategic vulnerability.

In our region, China’s strategic and economic weight has grown enormously, and is increasingly being felt by other countries. Pax Americana is no longer uncontested.

The US will always be a Pacific power, but its relationships with allies and partners have fundamentally altered.

On security, America now expects its allies to “shoulder more responsibility for their own defence”.

On trade, the shift is even sharper. The US used to champion free trade and the World Trade Organisation (WTO). It supported the idea of a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific. Now, it rejects the WTO multilateral framework. It levies tariffs on almost every country in the world, including allies and partners.

This is no longer the international order that underpinned Asia’s stability and prosperity for decades.

Looking ahead

A more contested region presents countries with hard choices. The reflex may be to turn inward, but no country can secure its future alone. Resilience comes not only from self-sufficiency, but also from partnerships and networks that a country can call upon in a crisis.

Neither does geography change. Countries must stay invested in their near-abroad. They neglect their neighbourhood at their cost.

How should Australia and other regional countries respond to this brave new world?

Firstly, we still prefer an open and inclusive region, not dominated by a single power nor divided into opposing camps.

In South-east Asia, we describe this as having overlapping circles of friends. Your circle may not coincide with mine, but that should not prevent us from being friends with each other.

For example, different ASEAN members have different relationships with the major powers.

Some are treaty allies of the US. Others have closer ties with China. Yet we all come together as ASEAN and cooperate extensively, including on economic integration, food and energy resilience, and regional security. We also engage all the major powers through forums like the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Regional Forum.

This approach does not eliminate differences. But it gives us more reasons to cooperate and more channels to manage disagreements. That makes for a stabler region than drawing a line in the sand and forcing everyone to choose sides.

Next, countries still want good ties with the US and hope it will stay engaged in the Asia-Pacific. This will make for a better regional balance and create more space for smaller countries to chart their own destinies.

Many countries are now working out how best to advance their ties with the US, while becoming more self-reliant and protecting their strategic interests.

Singapore is not a treaty ally of the US, but a Major Security Cooperation Partner. We have always worked on the basis that in extremis, Singaporeans will have to rely on ourselves to fight and defend our homes and families.

Australia is a treaty ally of the US, doubly so now with AUKUS. Yet even in Australia, there are voices calling for Australians “to be more self-reliant... to chart (your) own futures, and (to) do so recognising that your interests may not always be coextensive with that of the US”, to quote Malcolm Turnbull.

It is a very different tone from the turn of the century, when The Bulletin even suggested that Australia should be the “deputy sheriff” to the US.

Other US allies are also seeking greater self-reliance in their own ways. In South Korea, there is public debate about developing their own nuclear deterrence. Japan is substantially increasing its defence budget, and its defence minister has called for the country to discuss nuclear deterrence “without taboos”.

However, self-reliance needs to be complemented by friends and partners. That may explain why ties between South Korea and Japan, historically difficult, have recently warmed up.

Australia’s regional partners, beyond New Zealand, are in Asia, and especially South-east Asia. The deeper Australia’s relationships are across Asia, the more space it will have to pursue its own interests.

There are abundant opportunities to engage Asian countries through win-win projects, whether in the digital and green economies, public health or counterterrorism. The more different dimensions our projects encompass, the more we will see each other as partners in development, and not solely through the prism of US-China rivalry.

Australia is not a South-east Asian country, but it should be a very close partner of ASEAN, especially in an age where small and medium-sized powers need to work together more than ever.

Australia and Singapore

Physically, Australia and Singapore are very different. Australia is a huge continent rich in natural resources. Singapore is a tiny island with none.

But our two peoples and societies are very similar. Our social ethos is egalitarian and informal. Our cultures are open and direct. Our countries have compatible strategic perspectives.

Yet Singapore and Australia are not completely the same. There are differences in social mores and norms.

For example, Singapore’s strict drug laws contrast with Australia’s more tolerant attitudes. Each society strikes its own balance between individual liberties and collective interests.

Nevertheless, through frank and sincere exchanges sustained over six decades, we have come to appreciate and understand each other, developed mutual respect and warmth, and built a deep reservoir of trust and goodwill.

We upgraded our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership just last year. Our shared outlooks and close friendship give us the confidence to keep on doing more together.

Australia is less similar to many other Asian countries than to Singapore. Yet it is possible, and necessary, for Australia and Asia to understand each other better, and make common cause in an uncertain world. Singapore’s successful partnership with Australia points the way for your broader regional engagement.

Australia will find many willing partners keen to work with you to build a stable, peaceful and prosperous Asia for all.