At 100-day mark, will the experts be wrong about Trump again?

All polls point to a Biden victory in the Nov 3 presidential election in the US. But two big hurdles could yet fell the Democratic candidate.

On Sunday, the 100-day countdown to the Nov 3 presidential election in the US begins, and all traditional metrics point to a Democratic victory. But we have seen that before.

Since World War II, all incumbents with an approval rating of 50 per cent or higher in June of their re-election year have gone on to win while those with ratings below 40 per cent have always lost. President Donald Trump's latest Gallup job approval rating rests at 38 per cent.

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on July 24, 2020, with the headline 'At 100-day mark, will the experts be wrong about Trump again?'. Print Edition | Subscribe