S.E.A.View

Asean braces for Trump

Risks to region include escalation of South China Sea issues, squeeze on exports to America, lack of engagement

Former president Barack Obama's signature foreign policy initiative was the "pivot to Asia" (P2A) strategy, which aimed at reorienting American strategic priorities from the Atlantic to the Pacific, where many of the world's most promising economies and ambitious powers reside.

But Mr Donald Trump's ascension to the presidency on the back of a populist campaign tinged with neo-isolationist rhetoric and protectionist policy pronouncements has put into question America's commitment to underwrite regional peace and prosperity. In his inaugural address, Mr Trump declared: "Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength", and vowed a tough stance against "ravages of other countries".

Deep uncertainties over the Trump administration's rhetoric and potential policy have rattled both friends and allies. The new American government presents a whole set of opportunities and challenges for South-east Asia, particularly allies like the Philippines, which is the current chairman of Asean.

DIPLOMATIC RESET

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who has recalibrated Manila's policy towards regional powers with sound and fury, has largely welcomed Mr Obama's successor as an opportunity to reset visibly deteriorating relations with the United States.

What began as disagreements over Manila's increasingly warm relations with China rapidly morphed into the greatest diplomatic crisis in the history of Philippine-American bilateral relations as soon as the Obama administration openly criticised Mr Duterte's scorched-earth crackdown on illegal drugs.

In response, the Duterte administration scaled back major joint military exercises, particularly the Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training Exercise (Carat) as well as the joint US-Philippine Amphibious Landing Exercise, and threatened to cut off his country's century-old military alliance with America. The US, meanwhile, halted the shipment of firearms to the Philippine National Police and threatened to cut off the US$400 million (S$568 million) Millennium Challenge Corporation aid package.

But the Duterte administration now anticipates improvement in bilateral relations with Washington. On multiple occasions, Mr Duterte revealed his preference for Mr Trump, whom he has described as a kindred spirit. He has also enthusiastically welcomed the fact that the Trump administration has, so far, shown little interest in human rights-related issues.

Mr Duterte claims that his American counterpart supports his war on drugs. (The new US administration hasn't denied this.) In fact, during his confirmation hearing at the US Senate, secretary of state nominee Rex Tillerson repeatedly refused to categorise Mr Duterte as a human rights violator.

Mr Tillerson had also asserted, referring to the South China Sea, that "we're going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops and, second, your access to those islands also is not going to be allowed". If the Trump administration follows through on its implicit promise to take the fight to China over the contested waters of the South China Sea , it could mean that Manila can outsource the costs of constraining Beijing's maritime assertiveness to Washington. This allows Mr Duterte to stay out of the clash of titans in the high seas, while nurturing good ties with both sides. Moreover, Manila hopes to leverage on business ties between its envoy to Washington, Mr Jose Antonio (the owner of Trump tower in Manila), and Mr Trump, who has unabashedly mixed politics and business in recent months.

Other Asean states also welcome a Washington that is less critical of human rights conditions across the region. This will be true for Thailand, the other South-east Asian treaty ally of America, which has also been at loggerheads with the US over human rights and democracy issues, particularly since the takeover by the junta in 2014. Malaysia, which has more explicitly pivoted to China in recent months, also anticipates a revival in bilateral relations with Washington.

Prime Minister Najib Razak, who has faced potential investigation by the US Justice Department over the 1MDB corruption scandal, happens to be a long-time friend (and golf buddy) of the new American President, who has described his Malaysian counterpart as his "favourite prime minister".

CHOPPY WATERS AHEAD

Overall, however, the Trump administration carries significant risks for the region. Mr Trump's pugnacious rhetoric against China and threats to escalate US military operations in the South China Sea could spark an all-out conflict at the expense of regional peace and prosperity.

If implemented, Mr Trump's "buy American, hire American" policies could also significantly hurt export-oriented economies in South-east Asia, particularly Singapore and Thailand, which heavily depend on American investments and open markets.

The Trump administration's promise to nix the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) has already dealt a heavy blow to many Asean negotiating partners, particularly Vietnam, which invested significant political capital to sign up and was hoping to receive large-scale American investments in return.

It is also highly likely that the Trump administration, which has identified "radical Islam" as a chief threat to American security, will also ramp up counter-terror operations across the region.

While the Obama administration went the extra mile to engage Asean, visit regional states and invite them for a special summit with the American president, its successor has, so far, shown little interest in (and respect for) engaging South-east Asia. It is doubtful if Mr Trump will attend regional summits under the aegis of Asean, as Mr Obama did.

We may very well see a populist, neo-isolationist version of the George W. Bush administration era, when America was more unilateralist, more militarily adventurous and less economically and diplomatically engaged with Asia.

• The writer is a political science professor at De La Salle University in the Philippines.

• S.E.A. View is a weekly column on South-east Asian affairs.

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on January 26, 2017, with the headline Asean braces for Trump. Subscribe