A Pelosi trip to Taiwan is dangerous

The United States and China are on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait.

China's ambitions have risen along with its military power and it may soon be capable of seizing democratically ruled Taiwan - even in a fight with the United States. President Xi Jinping is hoping to get an unprecedented third term later this year and cannot afford to appear weak. He has been increasing pressure on Taiwan and apparently believes the US is abandoning its circumspection about Taiwan's status and may soon formally back the island's independence.

At the same time, longstanding US "strategic ambiguity" has given way to strategic confusion. President Joe Biden's misstatements on Taiwan are undermining the carefully devised policy that has kept the peace for decades. He has repeatedly said that the US has a commitment to defend Taiwan. Last November, Mr Biden remarked that Taiwan is "independent". US-Taiwan official exchanges, military cooperation and American warship transits of the Taiwan Strait that were once kept under wraps are being made public.

A single spark could ignite this combustible situation into a crisis that escalates to military conflict. US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan could provide it.

Mrs Pelosi is said to be planning a stop in Taiwan as part of a trip through Asia. She and her advisers may think this would have a stabilising effect: Many in Washington believe that strong demonstrations of US commitment to Taiwan will dissuade China from risking a military adventure.

But at this moment, a visit by Mrs Pelosi to Taiwan could instead provoke a forceful Chinese response.

China considers Taiwan part of its sovereign territory and reacts furiously when US politicians travel there. A visit by Mrs Pelosi would take this to another level. She would be the highest-ranking US visitor since then House speaker Newt Gingrich in 1997.

Mrs Pelosi is also loathed in China for pressing Beijing on human rights. Images of her alighting in Taiwan would be seen in China as a serious provocation.

Mr Xi, who, like his predecessors, has repeatedly emphasised that China will someday reunify Taiwan with the mainland, may take big risks to defend a perceived infringement on China's territorial integrity and sovereignty. Beijing has warned that its military will not sit idly by if the trip goes ahead.

Beijing, though, should recognise its role in raising the tensions. Critics in the US rightly warn that China has upset the regional balance through its military modernisation, raising fears of an invasion of Taiwan. Incursions by Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan's air defence zone are on track to hit a new high this year.

Chinese officials have recently also asserted that the Taiwan Strait does not constitute international waters, which could suggest that Beijing intends to interfere with transiting foreign vessels. China has also stepped up challenges to US ships as well as Australian, Canadian and other foreign aircraft. Beijing has poached eight of Taiwan's diplomatic allies since 2016 - only 13 countries plus the Vatican still recognise Taiwan - and has applied economic and other pressure as well.

And yet Chinese officials argue that America is destabilising the status quo, citing Mr Biden's repeated insistence that the United States would defend Taiwan. Two former Trump Cabinet secretaries, Mr Mike Pompeo and Mr Mark Esper, have gone further, calling not only for an ironclad US pledge to defend Taiwan, but for discarding the "one China" policy, in which the United States recognises the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China but only "acknowledges" the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of China.

Some members of Congress are pressing ahead with the Taiwan Policy Act, which would redefine the US-Taiwan relationship, providing funding for Taiwan's arms purchases, raising Taiwan to the status of a "major non-Nato ally", and taking other steps to upgrade recognition of Taiwan's government. Beijing interprets these as violations of longstanding US pledges made to China.

In our conversations with Chinese experts, the accumulation of these perceived changes in the US position has led some of them to argue that China needs to take steps to make its red lines credible.

Chinese leaders would want to avoid war with the United States, but might be willing to risk an escalation such as challenging Mrs Pelosi's plane or flying military aircraft directly over Taiwan for the first time. Inadvertent escalation would be a real risk.

In Washington, some experts think a crisis with Beijing over Taiwan is inevitable and that the US should not back down. And Chinese leaders reflexively characterise almost all US actions in support of Taiwan as dangerously provocative, creating the perception that Beijing's dire warnings about Mrs Pelosi's trip are mere bluster that can be ignored.

But neither side needs a war. And from a US strategic standpoint, this is a particularly bad issue to pick a fight with China over: Even Democratic leaders in the executive and legislative branches are divided over Mrs Pelosi's trip.

Washington and Beijing must stop the escalation and clearly communicate their concerns and red lines. This is all the more difficult because China's aggressive propaganda has desensitised Americans to Beijing's messaging. Yet there are steps that leaders can take to decrease the temperature.

First, Mrs Pelosi should postpone any visit to Taiwan to give the Biden administration time to articulate a clear and consistent policy towards the island. This is critical not only so that China understands the US stance, but so that Americans are clear too.

Administration leaders should work to build bipartisan consensus around a policy stressing that America's top objective is to deter Chinese use of force against Taiwan and preserve peace in the Taiwan Strait. They should lay out US efforts to stabilise the status quo, including steps that both Washington and Beijing could take to reduce the risks.

In addition, the United States should reassure Taiwan that it will insist on the peaceful resolution of cross-strait differences. The United States could expedite delivery of backlogged weapons and approve the sale of additional arms to strengthen Taipei's ability to defend itself. Washington should simultaneously convey to Beijing that the United States stands by its "one China" policy and does not support Taiwan's independence.

Critics of this approach will claim that Beijing is a bully, that bullies respond only to strength and that Washington - and Mrs Pelosi - cannot back down. But we are sleepwalking into a crisis. Leaders on all sides must wake up and find off-ramps to avoid a dangerous confrontation that neither side wants. NYTIMES

•Bonnie S. Glaser is the director of the Asia programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and has worked on China issues as a consultant for the Defence and State Departments. Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a co-director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy, served in the Pentagon and White House during the George W. Bush administration.