Asian Insider: Middle powers and small states are hustling hard to survive

It’s quite telling that nobody is too hopeful even after the US Supreme Court checked the constitutionality of President Donald Trump’s tempestuous tariff regime.  

Many leaders understand this ruling does not automatically unravel the bilateral trade deals that were so agonisingly negotiated in the past year, nor does it fundamentally alter any ongoing negotiations. Still, spare a thought for  Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto, who inked a trade deal with Mr Trump in Washington a day before the Supreme Court dropped its much-awaited ruling on Feb 20.

Given Mr Trump’s capriciousness, many governments are wary of getting on his wrong side. The American Supreme Court may have clipped his trade agenda, but the president still has several other levers to reimpose his will. 

He has already temporarily imposed a 10 per cent tariff on all economies, with his administration working to increase to the maximum-allowed 15 per cent. 

China and India, two of Asia’s largest economies, are recalibrating, keen to capitalise on new openings, as my colleagues Kok Yufeng and Debarshi Dasgupta report. 

An Indian delegation’s visit to Washington this week to finalise an interim trade deal has been rescheduled, while China urged the US to abandon its “unilateral tariffs” and said it is open to “candid consultations” ahead of Mr Trump’s visit to China from March 31 to April 2.

Mr Trump would join an illustrious list of global leaders who have descended on Beijing in recent months to reset ties with President Xi Jinping. For countries caught between the two dueling superpowers though, their goals are fundamentally quite different from Mr Trump’s. 

German Chancellor Fredreich Merz is leading a delegation of business leaders to Beijing and Hangzhou this week as he seeks to find a way out for his country’s beleaguered manufacturers who have been squeezed by intense Chinese competition and US tariffs. 

Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will kick off a swing through the Asia-Pacific this week, including stops in India, Australia and Japan. He, too, was in China recently.

The ruptured world order that Mr Carney spoke about in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January is in full throttle. Middle powers and small states are hustling to figure out new configurations to survive this brave new world. 


 

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