P1 registration 2026: Will you need to ballot for your preferred school?

The P1 intake for most primary schools will be gradually reduced over the next few years, starting with the 2026 registration exercise, as cohort sizes continue to shrink.

“This will minimise the need for school mergers or relocations, and maintain a good geographical spread of primary schools for students across Singapore,” MOE had said on April 29.

About 38,100 pupils entered P1 in 2024, followed by 37,800 in 2025 and 38,200 in 2026.

Decline of vacancies and birth cohort sizes in recent years

Analysis by The Straits Times found that most schools with fewer P1 places had been generally undersubscribed over the past four years and did not require balloting in Phase 2C.

However, some schools that have been in high demand have also reduced their places.

Observers told ST this may reflect a deliberate strategy by MOE to balance resources across schools or manage future cohort sizes.

Reducing vacancies in specific primary schools serves as a deliberate redistribution strategy to “spread the enrolment pressure” across schools in neighbouring estates, according to Lena Chee, senior manager of tuition centre EduFirst Learning Centre.

For example, in housing estates like Tampines, Chee said that shifting capacity between nearby schools helps to balance out localised demand, as a reduction in places prompts people to look at other options in the same area and dampens localised competition.

It reassures parents that nearby schools are viable alternatives, encouraging them to “look at convenience and logistics as opposed to other factors such as... the prestige of a certain school”.

Most schools in Sengkang and Punggol have had their places reduced, likely reflecting shifts in the population profile.

“Even in high-demand areas like Sengkang, some schools still had spare vacancies and unused classrooms. So the reductions may reflect an attempt to rebalance the utilisation of the resources across schools rather than to match the demand school by school,” said Chee.

Areas like Sengkang and Punggol have served as benchmarks for how new housing developments affect school capacities, Chee said, much like what newer estates such as Tengah are experiencing now.

But even in the same town, demand can be uneven because of different demographics, ageing estates and gaps in construction, she added.

“Some neighbourhoods age at a different pace compared with other neighbourhoods, and then some clusters are now occupied by families with older children or elderly parents, which reduces (demand for Primary 1 places),” she said.

Chee added that reducing the intake now could also help minimise the need for school mergers later when local cohorts shrink.

Fewer vacancies in all but seven schools in Sengkang, Punggol

Some schools that have increased their intakes are located near newly built HDB flats.

In Tampines, Chongzheng Primary School, Gongshang Primary School and Tampines Primary School have each added 40 places, representing an increase of 14 per cent to 16 per cent from their previous intake numbers.

Reductions at two schools in Tampines but rise in overall number of seats

In Tengah, Pioneer Primary School has 30 more spots for the coming enrolment, representing an 8 per cent increase.

Despite being unaffiliated with any secondary school and not under the Special Assistance Plan (SAP), Princess Elizabeth Primary School, located in the area, was the most oversubscribed in Phase 2C from 2022 to 2025, and required balloting for those living within 1km of the school.

Princess Elizabeth has been at the centre of many new Build-To-Order (BTO) housing developments. For residents in certain estates, it may be the only school within 1km of their homes.

Other schools in the area, like Jurong Primary and Dazhong Primary, are within 1km to 2km for families in those estates.

More places at Pioneer, Bukit View amid new BTO developments

In Bidadari, where some of the newest BTOs are popping up, schools in the vicinity, like Cedar Primary School or St Andrew’s School (Junior), have yet to see an increase in places. This could be due to the presence of younger families whose children are not yet of school-going age.

One exception is Maris Stella High School (Primary), which is within 1km of parts of Bidadari. The school has added 60 new places, a 22.2 per cent increase from its previous intake.

Only Maris Stella High sees more slots despite rise of BTOs in Bidadari

EduFirst’s Chee said that proximity to a school has become increasingly important, overtaking traditional privileges like alumni status. In some cases, even parents with alumni ties to a school find themselves needing to ballot because of the volume of applicants living within close geographical proximity.

“Within the last one or two years, (some schools) have become oversubscribed due to the new BTOs,” she said. “Previously, they (parents) might not have had an issue because they were alumni… but as the years progress, the school has become oversubscribed.”

This means that living within 1km or 2km of a school may be more advantageous than alumni ties in some phases.

Chee said proximity is also a major consideration for parents because of its impact on daily routines.

For many families, travel time and logistics outweigh a school’s reputation and prestige, because of how they affect time management and well-being.

“I would advise parents to do their research first and have family discussions,” she said. “This is very important because as a family unit… there are things at play with regard to your work life, schedule, and transportation needs in the morning and the evening.”

Your home address has officially become the most critical factor in securing a spot in a primary school. Over the past few registration cycles, distance has begun to override factors like alumni ties and parent volunteering.

This geographic squeeze is now hitting Phase 2A, the phase reserved for alumni.

Popular schools like Pei Hwa Presbyterian and Temasek Primary previously held ballots for citizens living between 1km and 2km away in Phase 2A. Recently, that bottleneck tightened to within 1km – the strictest distance category. For their balloting in the same registration phase, Catholic High and Rosyth moved from a requirement of living more than 2km away to a tighter 1km-to-2km restriction.

Among the most popular schools for 2025’s Phase 2A were Gongshang Primary, South View Primary and Yangzheng Primary.

In Phase 2B, for volunteers and clan affiliates, top-tier choices like Ai Tong, CHIJ St Nicholas and St Hilda’s had their vacancies capped at just 20 spots, forcing a sub-1km rule for the ballot.

By Phase 2C, the open phase, a staggering 62 schools required balloting just for citizen children living within 1km. For popular choices like Henry Park, Pei Chun and Nan Chiau, the odds were slim if you lived farther than 1km away.

Any school that has had to hold a ballot over the last two cycles is highly likely to remain a competitive hot spot, especially as P1 places are actively trimmed across the island.

Parents must ensure that the residential address stated on their NRIC is updated and valid before commencing the registration exercise. In line with MOE requirements, parents who secure a school spot through distance advantages are legally required to live at that registered address for at least 30 months from the start of the registration exercise.

Falsifying proximity data or failing to meet the residency duration can result in pupils being stripped of their slots and reassigned to another school with remaining vacancies.

Beyond just distance, those participating in the exercise this year should take note of other neighbourhood variables that could dictate the chances of a school having to hold a ballot. These include new or completed housing developments, changing intake quotas and co-located MOE kindergartens.

While pre-schoolers from MOE kindergartens receive an advantage in Phase 2A, they could still have to go through a ballot at oversubscribed schools.