So near, yet so far: China eyes Taiwanese island as ‘reunification’ model

KINMEN/XIAMEN – Looking out from the sleepy village of Shuangkou on Taiwan’s Kinmen island, the towering skyscrapers of the Chinese city of Xiamen appear majestic and imposing.

The contrast between the quiet village and the gleaming metropolis – separated by a narrow stretch of water – is stark, even on a foggy day, and serves as a striking visual metaphor for the complex feelings that the 130,000 Kinmen residents have about their giant neighbour located just 3km away.

The rusty anti-landing iron pikes standing in a row along the beach – a leftover from the island’s military past – may be an enduring reminder of the persistent threat of a Chinese invasion, but many islanders still wish to foster closer ties with Xiamen, lured by its economic rise, which has unfolded right before their eyes.

One of them is taxi driver and tour guide Wu Shan-hua, who regularly ferries Chinese tourists around the island, introducing them to local eats and notable historical sites.

“We need to work with China, otherwise, what else is there for us in Kinmen? There are no real economic opportunities here,” the 58-year-old told The Straits Times as she strolled along the beach she often takes visitors to.

“If we are not friendlier with China, Kinmen will suffer.”

Kinmen - an archipelago of 12 islands including the main island of Kinmen - holds a highly unique and paradoxical position in cross-strait relations. While the archipelago is situated just off China’s Fujian province, it is controlled by Taiwan’s capital Taipei, more than 300km away.

Despite it once being Taiwan’s heavily militarised front line against Chinese communist forces, Kinmen’s geographical proximity to China makes it a natural, yet sensitive, bridge for cross-strait interactions that, in the case of Kinmen, are largely social and economic in nature, including tourism.

To Beijing, this allows Kinmen to act as a critical testing ground for its long-term goal of “reunification” with the self-governing Taiwan, which it views as its own territory.

In recent years, Beijing has significantly intensified its carrot-and-stick strategy towards Kinmen – a dual-track approach seeking to integrate the islands economically into the mainland while simultaneously dismantling Taiwan’s legal jurisdiction through persistent maritime pressure.

But while China’s shadow looms large over Kinmen, the future of Beijing’s strategy is heavily dependent on Taipei, which is determined to protect its autonomy and democratic form of government.

In a nutshell, China’s strategy includes economic incentives such as preferential policies for Taiwanese going to Xiamen to do business or live, as well as infrastructure investment in Kinmen – such as offering Kinmen residents the use of Xiamen’s upcoming massive airport – while stepping up aggressive “grey zone” tactics such as intrusive coast guard patrols.

Professor Zhang Wensheng, deputy dean of the Taiwan Research Institute at Xiamen University, describes Beijing’s approach as “soft on one hand, hard on the other”.

The latter is directed mainly at “Taiwan independence separatists”, he said. “If the peaceful hand doesn’t work, you can increase the pressure with the non-peaceful one.”

Across the strait, Associate Professor Chen Shih-min, a political science analyst at National Taiwan University, noted that Kinmen’s proximity to China makes it extra vulnerable to Beijing’s economic and political influence.

“It’s long been said that it’s cheaper for China to buy Taiwan than to fight Taiwan, so Beijing will keep trying to dangle various ‘carrots’,” he said.

“At the same time, China maintains an ever-present threat of isolation or force in Kinmen to remind Taiwan of its vulnerability.”

At its closest point to the mainland, Kinmen is just 3km across the sea from Xiamen.

A “Mini Three Links” ferry service connecting Xiamen and Kinmen, which celebrates its 25th anniversary in 2026, is a boat ride lasting only 30 minutes. On the other hand, it takes around one hour by plane for Kinmen residents to reach Taipei, as there is no ferry service.

Even after the shelling stopped, both sides continued to pump propaganda through loudspeakers and radios to the opposite shore to win hearts and minds to their cause.

Growing up on the islands in the late 1970s and 1980s, Kinmen native Tai Lien-chun recalls listening to not one, but two “national anthems”.

“In school, we would sing the Taiwanese anthem,” said the 52-year-old boss of a deer farming business. “But we could also hear the mainland’s anthem over the broadcasts.”

The loudspeaker broadcasts from Xiamen began with “dear Taiwan compatriots” and said things like “the motherland, the mainland, welcomes your return”, he recalled.

Meanwhile, the Taiwanese broadcasts appealed to “dear mainland compatriots” and played music by popular singer Teresa Teng, among others.

Today, the loudspeakers are silent, but the differing narratives remain.

While China’s slogan remains relevant today, the sign in Kinmen has become just a tourist attraction with little political intent.

A popular tourist ferry from Xiamen takes people for a closer look.

Mr Zha, a 63-year-old Xiamen resident, took a curious relative on the ferry ride one recent February morning. “Kinmen is part of the motherland,” said the retired miner, “and we definitely want it to return.”

Kinmen residents began developing warmer feelings towards China when the opening of direct ferry routes and trade significantly increased interactions between the two sides.

Launched in 2001, the Mini Three Links are a set of direct trade, transport and postal connections between Taiwan’s outlying islands Kinmen and Matsu and China’s Fujian province.

The success of the programme demonstrated the feasibility of direct cross-strait connections, eventually leading to the full Three Links – connecting Taiwan proper and Chinese cities – in 2008. Before then, connections between the two sides were largely indirect through third locations like Hong Kong.

At the heart of Beijing’s reunification strategy is the creation of a seamless Kinmen-Xiamen Common Living Circle, first announced in 2019, which aims to deepen economic, social and infrastructural links between the two places.

In January 2026, Xiamen Mayor Wu Bin said efforts would be accelerated to make this “living circle” a reality, and that integrated development would be promoted across the region.

That includes widening cooperation on infrastructure projects between Xiamen and the archipelago, such as the completion of a bridge connecting the two sides and linking Kinmen directly to Xiamen’s massive upcoming airport, located just 4km away.

Kinmen residents would be encouraged to use the Xiang’an International Airport, which is set to open by the end of 2026. It promises better access to international flights compared with the airport in Kinmen, which serves only domestic routes within Taiwan.

Several Kinmen residents told The Straits Times that they were in favour of such integration policies, adding that they merely formalised practices that have been in place for years. According to a 2021 survey of 500 Kinmen residents, most locals were positive about the idea of closer links with China.

“If you ask most people in Kinmen, we already feel integrated with China in many ways – we’re even drinking their water,” said Ms Wu, the taxi driver.

Since 2018, Kinmen has been importing three-quarters of its fresh water via a pipeline from Fujian’s Quanzhou city. Beijing is actively pushing to also supply electricity and gas to the islands, a move welcomed by many Kinmen officials and residents.

Even former naysayers of China such as Ms Shao Chia-chen, a Kinmen-born hairdresser, said she cannot help but be impressed by China’s economic might.

Ms Shao moved home in 2025 after working in Taipei for 30 years, and made her first-ever trip to China when she hopped onto a ferry to Xiamen shortly after her return. Now, she goes there at least five days a month to shop and eat.

“I’ve completely changed my mind about China – I used to think it was quite backward,” she told ST.

“But Xiamen, which is only a ‘Tier 2’ city, is so much more developed than Taipei,” she said, adding that she has since invited her Taipei-based hairstylist friends to join her on future trips.

“I always have so much fun there. There are mega shopping malls and lavish spas – nothing like what is available in Kinmen,” she added.

Aside from shopping, Taiwanese have also been visiting Xiamen to buy property, said Mr Fu Qiang, founder of the Xiamen Gaopeng (Real Estate) Group. One draw is that Taiwanese enjoy the same rules as Xiamen residents for local property purchases.

His firm receives at least one group of property viewers from Taiwan each month, he said. Many are older buyers - in their 40s or above - who are looking for properties to invest or retire in, he added.

In Xiamen, China’s bid to attract more Kinmen residents is immediately visible upon arriving at the ferry terminal.

There, a “Kinmen countrymen’s service centre” launched in 2024 aims to help Kinmen residents navigate tasks such as opening bank accounts, getting Chinese phone numbers and applying for local residence permits.

Elsewhere in the city, Kinmen residents like Mr Tai, the deer farm owner, say they have already benefited from policies that help Taiwanese put down roots in the city.

Mr Tai, who expanded his business into Xiamen in 2015, said staff at the local branch of the Taiwan affairs office - the state agency responsible for cross-strait relations - offered “nanny-like” guidance on bureaucratic processes and helped him connect with other government outfits.

Today, Mr Tai lives in Xiamen and returns to Kinmen by ferry several times a month to tend to his original business and visit family.

Among the policies Beijing has introduced to make it easier for Taiwanese, including Kinmen residents, to study, work and live across the strait is one that promises mutual recognition of professional qualifications, making it easier for Taiwanese doctors, teachers and engineers to work in Xiamen without re-certification.

Assistant Professor Ma Chun-wei from Taiwan’s Tamkang University said: “Many Kinmen residents have long conducted business in China, and they have relatives or spouses in Xiamen.

“China keeps pushing the idea that both sides of the strait are one family, and that’s actually the case for the people of Kinmen.”

According to official statistics, Kinmen has one of the highest concentrations in Taiwan of marriages between local residents and mainland Chinese. Such marriages accounted for one-fifth of all marriages in Kinmen in 2024, far higher than Taiwan’s overall average of 6.2 per cent.

Ms Liu Shuang, who runs a homestay as well as a food stall selling “mainland Chinese cuisine” in Kinmen’s town centre, moved to the island in 2017 after marrying her Taiwanese husband.

The 34-year-old mother of two, who hails from China’s north-eastern Heilongjiang province, misses the frenetic energy of urban life in her home town, but has since grown accustomed to Kinmen’s slower pace.

Should Kinmen ultimately fall under China’s “one country, two systems” model, she is convinced that life would go on as normal. “As long as there are still two systems, I don’t see any problems,” she said.

For now, she only hopes to see the full resumption of cross-strait tourism. In 2025, only around 190,000 Chinese tourists visited Kinmen, a nearly 40 per cent drop from the more than 300,000 the archipelago welcomed in 2019.

Cross-strait travel has practically frozen since 2019 amid deteriorating relations between Beijing and Taipei, dealing a blow to Kinmen residents as the islands are largely dependent on tourists from the mainland.

Since 2024, however, Chinese tourists from Fujian have been allowed to travel to Kinmen and nearby Matsu. In February 2026, China announced that plans are under way to allow tourists from Shanghai to soon do the same.

Taipei slammed the latest move as “political manipulation disguised as a gesture of goodwill”, as Taiwan’s current regulations do not prohibit Shanghainese from visiting Kinmen in the first place, it said.

But for many Kinmen businesses dependent on big-spending Chinese tourists, any apparent revitalisation of the tourism sector is good news.

Kinmen businessman Wu Tseng-dong, the third-generation owner of renowned knife-making company Maestro Wu, said: “More cross-strait exchanges are always a good thing. In the end, we’re all descendants of the Chinese race.”

His company’s line of kitchen knives, repurposed from old artillery shells that China once fired at Kinmen, are one of the most popular souvenirs among Chinese tourists.

“Because the knives are made using shells fired during war, I think there is significant meaning in Chinese tourists taking them back now as symbols of peace,” said Mr Wu.

However attractive the economic incentives may be, Taiwanese experts warn that they come at a price.

National Taiwan University’s Prof Chen said: “China’s incentives for Kinmen are touted as improving regional development, but growing economic dependency on China could weaken morale and diminish resistance to unification.

“Essentially, China is using Kinmen as a model for its ‘one country, two systems’ ambitions.”

Apart from dangling carrots, China also wields a stick - it has significantly ramped up grey-zone tactics against the archipelago to remind it of its vulnerability, especially via frequent coast guard incursions.

Grey-zone tactics refer to coercive, unconventional actions used by states, which fall below the threshold of direct armed conflict, to achieve strategic goals.

For decades, Kinmen’s de facto sea boundaries with China had been tacitly observed by the Chinese government – until a fatal maritime incident in February 2024.

At the time, an unlicensed and unregistered Chinese fishing boat capsized near Kinmen within Taiwan’s prohibited waters after colliding with a Taiwanese coast guard vessel in its attempt to flee inspection. Two of the four fishermen on board drowned, while the other two were detained for a week.

Since then, the Chinese coast guard has been carrying out regular patrols in the waters surrounding Kinmen, asserting its right to conduct “routine law enforcement” while formally denying the existence of Taiwan’s restricted or prohibited waters around Kinmen.

As at February 2026, China has conducted an average of four incursions near Kinmen every month, typically involving four vessels entering restricted waters for around two hours each time.

Prof Chen noted that the moves are part of China’s legal warfare tools against Taiwan.

“Essentially, these incursions are meant to chip away at Taiwan's sovereignty and its administrative authority,” he said.

“By normalising these so-called law enforcement patrols around Kinmen, China is dismantling the established status quo and claiming that those waters are its internal waters,” he added.

In response, Taiwan’s coast guard deploys its own boats to block the Chinese vessels’ advance and track their movements, while broadcasting demands that they leave immediately.

But Taiwan’s coast guard is massively outmatched by China’s fleet – the world’s largest. Typically, Taiwan utilises 100-tonne patrol boats to monitor and shadow Chinese ships, which often exceed 1,000 tonnes.

Such constant close-quarter shadowing increases the likelihood of accidental collisions, which could serve as a powder keg for larger military conflict, observers say.

Kinmen independent councillor Tung Sen-po, whose family is in the fishing industry, regularly tracks Chinese and Taiwanese vessel activity via various ship traffic apps.

“Taiwan’s coast guard is facing more and more intense pressure every day, and that is worrying,” he told ST.

“There used to be an understanding of sorts, of a median line between the two sides – now, that is non-existent.”

China’s pro-integration policies with the Kinmen islands are aimed at demonstrating to the wider Taiwanese audience the value of closer ties with the mainland.

It has already had some demonstrative effect, said Xiamen University’s Prof Zhang, noting that Taiwanese businessmen often travel through Kinmen to get to the mainland.

But while Beijing’s carrot-and-stick approach may gain some traction in Kinmen and among some Taiwanese businesses, experts in Taipei say it is unlikely to work for the rest of Taiwan due to fundamental differences in geography, economic dependence and public identity.

Kinmen’s economy is heavily tied to local tourism and trade with Xiamen, but the rest of Taiwan is a global economic player focused on international trade and technology rather than localised cross-strait economic integration.

And although Kinmen residents often view themselves as culturally and economically linked to China, the majority of the population on the main island identifies strongly as Taiwanese and is suspicious of Beijing’s “one country, two systems” model, especially following the increasing erosion of autonomy in Hong Kong, the former British colony that was handed over to China under this framework in 1997.

According to a December 2025 survey by Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, an overwhelming 82.6 per cent of Taiwanese opposed the framework, while 84.4 per cent said Taiwan’s future must be decided solely by its own population.

National Taiwan University’s Prof Chen said: “Compared with Kinmen – which is economically reliant on China – there is more wariness across the rest of Taiwan about getting too close to China, especially when Beijing keeps threatening Taiwan with military moves.”

Still, there are concerns that Beijing could use its actions in Kinmen as a legal and strategic precedent for more coercive moves to come.

Assistant Professor James Chen, an East Asian security expert at Taiwan’s Tamkang University, said: “If the events in Kinmen are judged to be successful, Beijing could attempt to apply similar jurisdictional pressure to other outlying islands like Matsu or Penghu to gradually chip away at Taiwan's sovereignty.”

Furthermore, analysts have warned that the ongoing patrols around Kinmen could be a way for the Chinese coast guard to test different methods for securing maritime control in the waters around Taiwan.

Much of the discussion surrounding Beijing’s plans for Taiwan have long focused on the possibility of a full-scale military invasion. But more recent thinking among experts is that Beijing could instead execute a maritime blockade or quarantine that could sever the island’s economic, energy and military lifelines.

“If Beijing frames a blockade around Taiwan as maritime law enforcement, then it would achieve the strategic objective of controlling Taiwan without triggering a conventional war,” said Tamkang’s Prof James Chen.”

Going forward, Taiwanese analysts say China will likely continue to intensify its two-pronged campaign in Kinmen. Even though the strategy faces significant limitations in influencing the main island of Taiwan, Beijing is exerting pressure on a key vulnerable target.

As the events in Kinmen have shown, they serve as a warning that Beijing’s reunification plan may not arrive as a traditional military strike, but as a gradual tightening of a jurisdictional and economic noose.

“Often, Kinmen feels too small and too far away for people to care about, but it nonetheless serves as a symbol of Taiwan’s commitment to defending its sovereignty, so it’s very important,” said Tamkang’s Prof Chen.

What is critical now is Taipei’s response.

Associate Professor Lu Cheng-fung, a Taiwan security expert at National Quemoy University in Kinmen, said it is critical for Taiwan to continue asserting its jurisdiction in Kinmen wherever possible.

That includes using transparency to weaken Beijing’s narrative control, he told ST.

“Taipei systematically documents Chinese incursions and releases information to the international community about them – this is key in highlighting Beijing’s breaches of international norms,” he said.

Taiwan’s coast guard must also continue to strengthen its defences, he added. The island’s maritime force is undergoing modernisation, with plans to build 141 new coast guard vessels between 2018 and 2027, including 1,000-tonne patrol ships with high-pressure water cannon.

“Beijing will continue its salami-slicing efforts aimed at wearing down Taiwan’s vigilance while gaining influence over the Taiwanese – starting with Kinmen,” said Prof Lu. “Taiwan must keep a close eye on these moves.”

For Kinmen residents like Ms Wu, the taxi driver, however, Beijing’s moves are more political posturing than imminent threats.

“There’s no way Beijing will invade us – we’re drinking their water, so if they really wanted to hurt us, they could easily poison the water,” she said.

“Kinmen people have been through war before, and we really just want to have peace and stability.”