Taking it slow in electric race

Carmakers such as Subaru and Mazda seem content to let others perfect the technology while consumer demand slowly merges with accelerating emissions mandates

The 2019 Subaru Forester at the New York Auto Show in March.
The 2019 Subaru Forester at the New York Auto Show in March. PHOTO: REUTERS

Subaru owners are a green bunch. They tend to bike, camp and kayak more than other drivers and inordinately live in the parts of the United States with the toughest emissions mandates.

The company plays to this ecological image by producing more than one million vehicles each year without sending any waste to landfills.

Yet the Subaru set cannot buy a battery-powered version of its favourite car. Today's Subarus run exclusively on fossil fuels. Later this year, the company plans to introduce a plug-in hybrid version of its Crosstrek SUV, combining gas engines with electric motors.

A fully electric car is still years away. "If we put one out now, we're going to be competing in the teeth of the market with everybody else," Subaru Corp's US chief executive officer Tom Doll said in an interview. "This way, we can let them kind of sort it out, then we can come in."

Subaru is among a small group of automakers setting a casual pace in the global race for electric vehicles.

Mazda Motor Corp is on a similarly relaxed timeline - at least two years from introducing a battery-driven motor. Mazda has said the relative efficiency of its petrol-powered cars afford it the luxury of moving slowly and deliberately.

The far larger Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV currently offers just two vehicles featuring battery technology: the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivan and the all-electric Fiat 500e.

These laggards appear content to let other research and development departments perfect the technology while consumer demand slowly merges with accelerating emissions mandates.

Demand for electric vehicles outside China is weak, with batterypowered models accounting for only one in 50 or so vehicle sales worldwide. Battery technology is still expensive and charging infrastructure is sparse in many parts of the world.

Above all, it is hard to find examples of manufacturers wringing profits from the electric revolution right now.

Slow sales have not deterred others from charging into what may prove to be the auto industry's biggest growth story in decades.

Volkswagen is in front, with 17 battery-powered models available right now, followed by Bayerische Motoren Werke's 13 plug-in vehicles. Even a more cautious US automaker such as General Motors expects to have 20 all-electric options by 2023, including seven different sport utility vehicles.

A slow roll to electrification can make sense. An automaker gets to save in the near term by allowing rivals to pay for electrification R&D. In a few years, when the costs of batteries have dropped drastically, a latecomer can then try to hammer out deals with the best suppliers and be right back in the electric race.

Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne went so far as to beg customers to not buy the all-electric 500e, noting in 2015 that his company was taking a US$14,000 loss on everyone that silently coasts out of a dealership.

More recently, he questioned the wisdom of electric vehicle production under current circumstances. "I don't know of a (business) that is making money selling electric vehicles, unless you are selling them at the very, very high end of the spectrum," Mr Marchionne told a crowd at Detroit's annual auto show.

There are risks to being late. Subaru, for instance, could tarnish its halo among the environmentally sensitive drivers now placing hundreds of thousands of reservations for emission-free Tesla.

Latecomers also risk missing out on recruiting top electric engineers and establishing vital battery-supply deals. Battery prices have fallen by 79 per cent in the past seven years, a pace that will make electric vehicles cost-competitive with internal combustion cars by 2024, according to industry research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

"Once this happens, things will shift quite quickly," BNEF analyst Colin McKerracher said. "Even now, you're starting to see more and more automakers say, 'Yes, we can actually make money on these things.'"

No less a sceptic, Mr Marchionne foresees demand accelerating quickly. He expects that by 2025,more than half of all vehicles sold will be powered, at least in part, by batteries or fuel cells and he recently gave the green light to build hybrid drivetrains on all models of Ferrari, another company he helms.

Fiat is also steering its Maserati brand squarely into Tesla territory with plans for a sinuous, all-electric sports car that will zip up about 315km an hour.

The thesis that an electric laggard can just order the right package of parts and quickly get back in the race has one glaring weakness: Back in 2003, Tesla filled the lonely role of start-up automaker; today, a rash of companies is trying to sell electric vehicles as a way to break into the industry.

The commodification of batteries and efficient, reliable electric motors is lowering the industry's barriers to entry.

Workhorse Group, a Cincinnati-based manufacturer, is now taking orders for what it bills as the first "plug-in range extended electric truck". The rig, which took three years to develop, is largely an exercise in parts shopping: The gasoline engine comes from BMW, the battery from Panasonic Corp, the chassis from Detroit's own Quality Metalcraft Inc and the differentials from Dana Inc, an Ohio-based supplier that sells similar parts to General Motors.

Workhorse CEO Stephen Burns said the all-in cost to design and bring the truck to market was a number "that a traditional car guy would laugh at". The hybrid pickup will retail for US$52,500 (S$70,146).

The most popular truck in America, Ford's F-150, will not have battery power until 2020. "It's just one of those classic things where the incumbents have such a thing to protect," Mr Burns said of Ford's slow-roll.

Subaru, meanwhile, will make its late debut as the manufacturer of a battery-powered vehicle by co-opting hybrid technology from Toyota, which owns almost 17 per cent of its shares.

That partnership and Subaru's relatively small size enables company leaders to believe they can afford to be patient. "I'd rather be last in and get it right," said Mr Doll, "than be first in and destroy my brand image and reputation."

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on June 09, 2018, with the headline Taking it slow in electric race. Subscribe