Business trips resume, but not at their old pace

NEW YORK • Business travel appears to be returning, albeit unevenly, after all but disappearing for most of the pandemic.

Despite early predictions that Zoom meetings would supplant face-to-face encounters even after the coronavirus had receded, industry trade groups are pointing to significant upswings in small business meetings, as well as larger conventions and trade shows, in the past couple of months.

What is not returning so quickly, executives and experts say, are business trips by individuals.

Some employers continue to set limits on travel. In other cases, because of Covid-19 restrictions, visitors are not allowed in the offices of the people they want to see.

Mr Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst for Atmosphere Research, pointed to data on worldwide airline ticket sales that "shows a steady increase in the number of business travel tickets being issued".

Yet, for all the positive signs that business travel is taking root again, Russia's war in Ukraine, China's "zero Covid" lockdowns and the unpredictable path of the pandemic all threaten to stifle a widespread return to 2019 levels from happening anytime soon.

Mr Robert Crandall, former president and chair of American Airlines, said the war in Ukraine could have significant consequences on the global economy.

"People want to feel safe," he said. "This will make them feel less safe, which will have an adverse impact on travel."

Mr Harteveldt was more optimistic about the prospects for business travel. "If developed countries' economies remain strong and the war in Ukraine doesn't spread, then the business travel industry will have a good fall and winter," he said.

The renewed hope contrasts sharply with the mood two years ago, when most business trips were abruptly cancelled or suspended.

The US Travel Association, a trade group, said that in 2020, domestic business travel spending was down 68 per cent from 2019 levels.

Although the spending grew last year, the group said, it was still about half of what it was in 2019.

But by last month, Global Business Travel Association chief executive Suzanne Neufang said, the association was seeing "significant gains in the return of business travel, especially over the past month or two".

In recent earnings calls, the major United States airlines all reported upticks in business travel bookings. American Airlines, for example, said its business demand had already recovered to 80 per cent of 2019 levels.

Some travel experts question how much, if at all, individual business trips will recover.

Mr Michael Derchin, a self-employed airline analyst, said that although small-and medium-sized businesses will continue to send employees on the road to meet customers face to face, "a substantial portion of the employees of large corporations will not travel permanently again", as companies focus on productivity and cost savings.

Still, after more than two years of remote work and meetings for many people, Mr Evan Konwiser, executive vice-president of product and strategy for American Express Global Business Travel, said he believed most travellers were "happy to be back on the road to see and meet their colleagues and customers in person".

NYTIMES