Optimism at record low for US firms in China: AmCham survey

Shanghai – US firms in China are reporting “record-low” optimism and increasingly looking to move investment away from the country, a business group said, as slowing growth and geopolitical tensions hurt investor confidence.

The findings by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Shanghai come as Beijing enacts a series of measures to prop up the sluggish economy.

There was a burst of consumer exuberance after China lifted its strict zero-Covid policies in late 2022.

But weak consumption, a crisis in the massive property sector and soft demand for China’s exports have complicated the recovery.

“2023 was supposed to be the year investor confidence and optimism bounced back after years of Covid-19 disruptions and restrictions,” AmCham said in a report released on Tuesday.

“According to our 2023 survey of US businesses in China, however, the rebound has not materialised and business sentiment has continued to deteriorate,” it added.

Tensions between Beijing and Washington are also weighing heavily on US businesses in China, AmCham said.

Respondents’ optimism about the next five years was the lowest ever recorded in the survey, the report said, with just 52 per cent saying they had an optimistic outlook, down 3 percentage points from the year before.

At a press conference on Monday, AmCham chairman Sean Stein said that in 2022, those surveyed expected a post-Covid-19 rebound, but by the time the survey was conducted this June, “a lot of the illusions had sort of fallen away”.

Asked to pick the top challenges to their company, 60 per cent of the 325 businesses who responded to the survey chose US-China relations, while the same number pointed to the economic slowdown.

Four out of 10 were planning or already in the process of redirecting their investment away from China to other countries, up 6 percentage points from 2022, with South-east Asia the top alternative destination.

AmCham said two-thirds of respondents under pressure to decouple from the Chinese market had pointed to US policy as the largest push factor, rather than Beijing’s actions.

Weaker profits may also make it more difficult for companies to justify the geopolitical risks and regulatory hurdles of going big in China.

Only 68 per cent of survey respondents said they were profitable in 2022 – another record low.

Even after the nation’s reopening, expectations for future profitability are relatively muted.

Only 40 per cent of survey respondents expect revenue growth to outpace global growth in the next three to five years.

Despite rising uncertainty, there have been positive moves from both the Chinese and United States governments in recent months, AmCham said.

“Increasing communication between Washington and Beijing in recent months was an important step to stabilise the relationship,” Mr Stein and AmCham president Eric Zheng said in a statement.

A series of visits by senior US officials to China this summer, including US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, as well as the release in August of the Chinese State Council’s 24 measures to promote foreign investment, have all been positive signals, AmCham said.

Citing Ms Raimondo’s visit, Mr Stein said: “That is something which potentially could help our optimism and pessimism numbers going forward, because that’s the biggest issue.” AFP, BLOOMBERG