Maersk eyes 4% market growth in 2025 amid uncertainty over tariffs and Red Sea access
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Maersk on Feb 6 said it expects to grow its business to track an expected 4 per cent growth in global container shipping in 2025.
PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
COPENHAGEN – Maersk on Feb 6 said it expects to grow its business to track an expected 4 per cent growth in global container shipping in 2025, even as profits are set to decline and US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats create uncertainty.
Geopolitical developments including Mr Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on the top US trading partners and access to the Red Sea shipping route will impact Maersk’s revenues.
The shipping giant, viewed as a barometer of world trade, had seen no changes in cargo flows due to the threats of tariffs so far, said chief executive Vincent Clerc.
“At the end of the day, it’s not tariffs that matter for volumes, it’s consumption,” Mr Clerc told journalists in Copenhagen after posting forecast-beating quarterly earnings and resuming share buybacks, sending Maersk’s share price up as much as 10 per cent.
“If a person wants to buy a television, then we’re going to move it, but if those tariffs translate into inflation, and people are buying fewer televisions, then there’re fewer televisions for us to move, and then there’s an impact.”
Maersk expects an underlying operating profit result of between US$6 billion (S$8.1 billion) and US$9 billion in 2025, compared with the US$12.1 billion achieved the year before and the US$7.4 billion predicted by analysts.
It said the wide forecast range hinged on the situation in the Red Sea, avoided by Maersk for over a year due to attacks by militants that forced vessels travelling between Europe and Asia to take the longer route around Africa.
“I don’t think we are close to making a change and going back into the Red Sea because there is so much uncertainty about the situation in the Middle East,” Mr Clerc said.
Maersk and rivals have benefited from longer sailing times and soaring freight rates with ships being rerouted around Africa as Houthi militants have kept up attacks on Red Sea vessels, claiming to do so in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.
“With negotiations for phase two of a (Gaza) ceasefire already under way, we see a meaningful risk of the group coming in at the lower end,” Bernstein analysts said in a research note.
Maersk, whose customers include Walmart, Target, Asos and Nike, saw global container market volume growth of 6 per cent in 2024 and expects 4 per cent growth in 2025.
The Danish company’s underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation rose to US$3.6 billion in the fourth quarter from US$839 million a year ago, beating a US$3 billion forecast by analysts in an LSEG poll. REUTERS