Singapore seen narrowly dodging recession in Q3

Singapore's economy likely escaped a technical recession in the third quarter even as growth stayed subdued, weighed down by the prolonged trade dispute between the United States and China, a Reuters poll showed.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have risen 1.5 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised basis in July-September, according to the median forecast of 11 economists in the poll.

That would mark a recovery from a 3.3 per cent drop in the second quarter, the biggest contraction in nearly seven years, but analysts say the outlook remains weak as global demand shows further signs of faltering.

"Third-quarter GDP is expected to stay weak and narrowly dodge a technical recession," said Maybank Kim Eng economist Lee Ju Ye. "Manufacturing will likely remain in recession, while services will be supported by the financial sector, tourism-related services and business services."

The standard technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.

Third-quarter GDP is expected to have expanded 0.3 per cent from the same period a year earlier , the poll found. The economy grew 0.1 per cent in April-June - the slowest annual growth since 2009's second quarter, when it fell 1.2 per cent.

All 11 economists polled are expecting the Monetary Authority of Singapore to ease monetary policy at its semi-annual review next Monday.


A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on October 08, 2019, with the headline 'S'pore seen narrowly dodging recession in Q3'. Print Edition | Subscribe