S'pore non-oil exports surge 24.2% in biggest rise in nearly 10 years
Electronics shipments in Nov were up 29.2% despite supply woes, pandemic challenges
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Singapore's key exports defied supply chain disruptions and continued challenges from the pandemic to rack up their biggest increase in almost 10 years last month.
Non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) surged 24.2 per cent year on year, extending the revised 17.8 per cent increase in October and growing for the 12th straight month, according to data released by government agency Enterprise Singapore (ESG) yesterday.
Last month's growth was the biggest year-on-year rise in Nodx since February 2012 when shipments jumped 30.3 per cent.
It also blew past economists' median forecast of 15.3 per cent growth in a Bloomberg poll.
Electronics shipments expanded 29.2 per cent last month, against 14.9 per cent in October, thanks to growth in segments such as personal computers, integrated circuits and disk media products.
Meanwhile, non-electronics exports rose 22.7 per cent year on year, following the 18.8 per cent increase in October.
This was largely due to specialised machinery, petrochemicals and primary chemicals.
On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, Nodx edged up 1.1 per cent last month, extending the 4.1 per cent growth in October, to hit $16.5 billion.
UOB senior economist Alvin Liew said the better than expected Nodx and overall trade numbers last month will give a boost to Singapore's growth outlook for the fourth quarter.
Favourable base effects, coupled with export growth momentum in October and November, have contributed to "material upside surprise" to Nodx for the last three months of the year, he said.
"While the favourable base effect may wear off a bit for the upcoming December data, the strong momentum for electronics exports could still add to a strong Nodx finish for 2021," Mr Liew added.
He said that full-year Nodx growth "will likely exceed 10 per cent in 2021", which would surpass both UOB's forecast of 9.5 per cent and last year's 4.3 per cent expansion.
Mr Irvin Seah, senior economist at DBS Bank, noted that electronics exports remained resilient despite expectations that demand for semiconductors would flatten.
This, alongside non-electronics exports growth, reaffirms the overall recovery picture, he said.
He does not expect the new Omicron variant to derail trade performance, given that the global economy has adjusted to disruptions during the Covid-19 pandemic and global trade had rebounded quickly from the shock seen at the start of the pandemic last year.
However, Mr Seah highlighted the need to temper expectations for gross domestic product and trade growth next year, in part due to the high base seen this year and given that central banks have turned hawkish amid inflation risks.
Last month, ESG upgraded its forecast for this year's Nodx growth to between 9.5 per cent and 10 per cent year on year, from the previous 7 per cent to 8 per cent projection.
This would mark the fastest pace of growth since 2010, when exports expanded by 22.8 per cent.
Total merchandise trade growth for the year is tipped to come between 17 per cent and 17.5 per cent this year.
Nodx to the top markets rose overall last month, even as exports to Thailand declined.
Total trade expanded 31.6 per cent last month, following October's 24 per cent growth, with expansion in both exports and imports.
