S'pore, HK left in the cold as global travel rebounds

SYDNEY • A global travel divide is deepening as some countries ditch Covid-19 restrictions, including quarantines, isolation and even mandatory testing, for good while others cling to years-old curbs.

Lingering barriers to travel in Asia, in particular, are isolating the region and its tourism-reliant economies, just as the recovery in Europe and the United States accelerates. In Britain, the authorities are dumping unpopular pre-flight tests and now require only proof of vaccination as they strive to normalise international air traffic.

The marquee transit hubs of Hong Kong and Singapore are being shunned as travellers seek to avoid weeks in hotel isolation on arrival or a raft of testing swabs.

Airlines, which before the pandemic operated about 30,000 flights a month to the two Asian gateways, have slashed that to just 4,514 this month, according to aviation data firm Cirium.

There is little prospect of immediate change.

Hong Kong - which quarantines overseas arrivals for as long as 14 days, and effectively bars flights from an array of countries deemed to be high-risk - is sticking to a goal of eliminating the virus even as cases in the community surge.

And while Singapore has over two dozen agreements with other countries to set up vaccinated travel lanes, it still requires overseas visitors to undergo almost a week of daily virus tests during their stay. Those attending the Singapore Airshow this week must also test negative each day as a condition of entry.

These impediments to flying extend the financial pressure on airlines primarily plying routes in Asia, from Cathay Pacific Airways and Singapore Airlines to budget carriers like Cebu Air in the Philippines and Malaysia's AirAsia.

The uneven air-travel rebound is likely to continue for the rest of this year as countries in Europe and North and South America continue to reopen and Asian restrictions put off travellers, according to Mr Rob Morris, Cirium's global consultancy chief.

Asia's Covid-19 curbs are choking the flow of visitors to the countries that need them most.

Australia's Jetstar recently delayed resuming flights to Bali from Melbourne and Sydney, citing the island's five-day quarantine rule for vaccinated arrivals.

Thailand this month resumed quarantine-free tourism for vaccinated travellers. But the requirements for multiple tests, registration and a certain baseline of insurance cover have drawn criticism. The country expects fewer than 10 million visitors this year, down from 40 million pre-Covid-19.

"The testing requirements are a disincentive," said Ms Hannah Pearson, founding partner of Kuala Lumpur-based tourism consultancy Pear Anderson. "The fact that Singapore and Thailand, the two leaders of reopening in the region, are still taking this intense approach to testing may encourage other countries to behave similarly."

At some point, South-east Asia's tourist hubs will need to demand less of overseas visitors, she said. That might mean downgrading to an antigen rapid test on arrival, or waiving tests completely for those who recorded a negative result before they took off, she said.

China and Hong Kong, meanwhile, are showing no sign of giving up their battle to contain the virus, even as other parts of the world treat it as endemic.

The central role that China and Hong Kong play in Asia's aviation market means their Covid-19-zero approach weighs on neighbouring nations. The number of scheduled flights into all of Asia from outside the region this month is little more than half the total before the pandemic, Cirium data shows.

The reluctance of travellers to tolerate quarantine after they land is clear: It typically deters at least 90 per cent of potential passengers, Auckland International Airport said this month, citing the experience of airlines in other markets.

The speed at which passengers return to the air once curbs and tests are removed also indicates how much these rules hinder travel.

British Airways and Virgin Atlantic Airways, for example, saw a surge of interest in long-haul flights last month, days after a requirement that vaccinated travellers take a Covid-19 test before boarding a flight to England was dropped. Last Friday, Britain also stopped requiring such travellers to take a Covid-19 test after arriving in England.

The British government is now depending on vaccines, recognising inoculation certificates from over 180 countries and territories.

Destinations in Asia are likely to continue to struggle to attract travellers for short breaks, said Singapore Institute of Technology associate professor in air transport management Volodymyr Bilotkach. "Why come to Singapore for four to five days and pay for all the extra tests, facing the risk of being stuck in your hotel room, when you can go to New York without having to worry about all this stuff?"

BLOOMBERG