LONDON • The pound surged above US$1.31 and hit its highest level in about 2½ years against the euro on Wednesday, lifted by growing expectations that Britain will avoid a hung Parliament after next week's election and a broader pullback in the US dollar.
The British currency is at its highest against the US dollar since May.
Forecasts that the ruling Conservatives will win an outright majority, removing some of the political uncertainty that has weighed on the currency, have encouraged investors to move back into the pound, pushing it past key technical barriers.
"In terms of cable (sterling/US dollar) and euro/sterling, we've been trading at US$1.30 and 85 pence respectively in the last few weeks and not managed to break through...," said Societe Generale currency strategist Kenneth Broux.
"Technically, these are important levels. I think some investors may be saying to themselves, 'well you know what, the polls haven't changed much so let's put a bit more money on the table, add to long sterling positions'."
The pound strengthened almost 1 per cent against the US dollar at one point to trade as high as US$1.312. It had slipped back to US$1.3104 in late trade, still poised for its biggest one-day jump since mid-October. It also shot higher against the euro, rallying almost 0.9 per cent to 84.54 pence, its highest level since May 2017.
Against the Singapore dollar, the pound was up 0.4 per cent to $1.787 from its previous day's close as at 11.50pm. It has strengthened 2.9 per cent against the Singdollar this year.
Polls have given Prime Minister Boris Johnson's party a lead over the opposition Labour Party. While Mr Johnson has vowed to take Britain out of the European Union (EU) on Jan 31 next year, Labour has said it will push for a second Brexit referendum.
"The market continues to cut back on sterling short portfolios and hedges in expectation of certainty derived from single-party majority expectations," said Mr Neil Jones, head of foreign exchange hedge fund sales at Mizuho Bank.
Traders had reported some option structures above US$1.30 fuelling demand for sterling.
The pound was little moved by the final IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index survey data confirming that Britain's service sector shrank last month.
The pound has soared since October, gaining 7 per cent since the prospect of a no-deal Brexit receded after the EU granted Britain a delay until Jan 31. Investors have latched on to the prospect of Britain avoiding a hung Parliament.
Five-year credit default swaps on British government debt are down around five basis points since the election was called last month, according to IHS Markit.
The British currency also benefited on Wednesday from a weak US dollar, which took a hit from disappointing economic news.
Data showed US private employers last month added the fewest jobs in six months, while service sector activity slowed more than expected.
Investors could grow more cautious as the vote approaches, with two-week implied volatility, a contract straddling the election, rising steadily to its highest since May.
While the pound is surging, the cost in the options market to insure against a setback is rising, too.
"FX traders will now ponder which way the risks are skewed as we run into election week with a feeling among some that the easy money has been made," said Mr Adam Seagrave, head of global sales trading at Saxo Markets.
REUTERS
• With additional information from The Straits Times
