BRUSSELS • The European Commission sharply cut yesterday its forecasts for economic growth in the euro zone this year and the next because of an expected slowdown in the largest countries of the bloc caused by global trade tensions and growing public debt.
In its quarterly economic forecasts, the EU executive also revised downwards its estimates for inflation in the 19-country currency bloc next year, which now is expected to be lower than forecast by the European Central Bank - likely complicating the bank's plans for an interest rate hike this year.
The Commission said euro zone growth will slow to 1.3 per cent this year from 1.9 per cent last year, and is expected to rebound in 2020 to 1.6 per cent.
The new estimates are less optimistic than the Commission's previous forecasts, released in November, when it expected the euro zone to grow 1.9 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent in 2020.
Growth in the 27-nation European Union - without Britain which is planning to leave next month - is expected to slow to 1.5 per cent this year from 2.1 per cent last year. Next year, the bloc is forecast to expand by 1.8 per cent.
All countries of the EU are poised to continue growing, with the bloc expected to post its seventh consecutive year of expansion, but the larger member states will brake significantly.
In Germany, the bloc's largest economy, growth is expected to slow to 1.1 per cent this year from 1.5 per cent last year. The Commission had previously forecast 1.8 per cent growth for Germany this year.
France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands are also forecast to reduce the pace of their expansion, with Italy expected to be the slowest economy in the whole EU with a mere 0.2 per cent growth this year.
The Commission cited global trade tensions and China's slowdown as the main drags for EU's economy.
But it also mentioned renewed concerns on debt sustainability, mostly in Italy, as a cause for the slowdown as Rome passed a free-spending budget forecast to have limited effects on growth.
The economic slowdown forecast by the Commission is worse than that seen by the ECB in its latest projections released in December, when the bank expected the euro zone to grow by 1.7 per cent this year. In a further concern for the ECB, the Commission expects euro zone inflation to be at 1.4 per cent this year, below ECB estimates of 1.6 percent rate, and further away from the bank's target of a rate close to 2.0 per cent.
After December, ECB policymakers have said that the bank's new forecasts next month are likely to be revised downwards.
REUTERS
