South-east Asia is at greater risk of an economic downturn than it was during the global financial crisis a decade ago, said a new report.

It noted that greater exposure to a slowing China and other structural shifts have left most Asean markets in a more perilous position than before.

Half of the region's economies have fallen into a current account deficit as exports have tumbled, while Vietnam and the Philippines were the only two countries not to post lower growth last year.

The commodities sector will not be as able to cushion the blow, as prices and sales are both down, while corporate and household debt has blown past 2008 and 2009 levels to reach the private-sector leverage of more developed markets such as the United States.

"The region's strong economic growth does not, in fact, shelter it from harm should other parts of the world sink into a downturn or even a recession," said the report from consultancy Bain & Co.

"Many of the structural traits that cushioned the region a decade ago, such as China's strong growth and the global demand for commodities, now offer less of a buffer.

"The shape of a downturn throughout the region could vary depending on the severity and causes of a global recession in those countries that buy large amounts of the region's palm oil, coal, computers and other goods."

Regional exposure to the Chinese economy has been reflected in a 5 percentage point increase in China's share of Asean exports between 2006 and last year, the report noted. Yet, China's gross domestic product growth has eased from 12.7 per cent to just 6.6 per cent over that same period.

"An ongoing US-China trade war might further slow China's growth, which would pose a problem for the region in the short term," the report also warned.

But Bain partner Thomas Olsen, who co-wrote the report, said the push for closer economic ties in the region could support South-east Asia more than in the past.

"Integration should be net helpful, because to the extent that there is a larger internal Asean economy, that would shelter... from external shocks," he added.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development cut almost all economic forecasts it made just four months ago, amid protectionist policies taking an increasing toll on confidence and investment while risks continue to mount in financial markets.

It said early yesterday that world growth could come in at just 2.9 per cent this year.