Core inflation eases to 3-year low of 0.6%

Dip due to steeper fall in cost of electricity and gas, slower rise in cost of services, say MAS and MTI

The cost of retail goods fell by 0.8 per cent year on year last month, the same as in September. Headline or overall inflation eased to 0.4 per cent, down from 0.5 per cent in September.
The cost of retail goods fell by 0.8 per cent year on year last month, the same as in September. Headline or overall inflation eased to 0.4 per cent, down from 0.5 per cent in September. ST FILE PHOTO

Core inflation last month cooled to 0.6 per cent, the lowest in more than three years, according to data released yesterday.

The last time it fell to the same level was in March 2016.

The latest reading was down slightly from the 0.7 per cent recorded in September, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said.

The dip was due to a steeper fall in the cost of electricity and gas, and a slower pace of increase in the cost of services, they said.

Core inflation excludes the costs of accommodation and private road transport, which are more affected by government policy and are not considered part of Singaporeans' everyday expenses.

Headline or overall inflation also eased to 0.4 per cent, down from 0.5 per cent in September.

Both readings were lower than economists' expectations, according to a Bloomberg poll. They had expected core inflation to stay at 0.7 per cent and headline inflation to remain unchanged at 0.5 per cent.

Maybank Kim Eng economists Chua Hak Bin and Lee Ju Ye said: "We expect inflationary pressures to stay muted next year as growth recovers at a sluggish pace and wage growth moderates."

MAS and MTI did not make any changes to the recently revised inflation outlook for this year.

Full-year core inflation is tipped to come in at the lower end of the 1 per cent to 2 per cent official forecast range, while overall inflation is seen at around 0.5 per cent.

For next year, both core and headline inflation are expected to average 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent.

For last month, electricity and gas costs decreased by 12.5 per cent on an annual basis - a steeper fall compared with the 8.3 per cent in September - because of lower electricity tariffs and the dampening effect on electricity prices of the national Open Electricity Market launch.

Services inflation fell to 1.2 per cent on an annual basis last month, down from 1.4 per cent in September, reflecting a slower pace of increase in holiday expenses, education services, and medical and dental treatment costs.

The cost of retail goods fell by 0.8 per cent year on year last month, the same as in September. The larger drop in prices of clothing and footwear, household durables and alcoholic drinks was offset by a smaller decline in the costs of recreation and entertainment goods and higher prices of personal care and medical products.

Food inflation edged up to 1.7 per cent year on year last month, from 1.6 per cent in September, because of an increase in the prices of non-cooked food and prepared meals.

Private road transport inflation rose to 1 per cent year on year last month, from 0.5 per cent in September, while accommodation costs fell by 0.4 per cent last month, easing from the 0.5 per cent drop in September.

File

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on November 26, 2019, with the headline Core inflation eases to 3-year low of 0.6%. Subscribe