NEW YORK • The formula for retailers on Black Friday is usually pretty simple: Cut prices, stock shelves, prepare for crowds and make sure orders arrive on time. This year - like everything in 2020 - is anything but.

America's biggest apparel retailers and department stores are anxious ahead of the crucial holiday period. That is because all the new tools they have hastily rolled out and scaled up amid the global pandemic, such as in-store and curbside pickup and direct shipping from stores, have not really been battle-tested. So if they fail, an already disastrous year could get that much worse.

"These companies are used to somewhat regular patterns," said Fitch Ratings retail analyst David Silverman. "All of that has gone out of the window."

Companies have laid out how they are getting ready: Kohl's Corp chief executive Michelle Gass, for example, said she is pushing shoppers to retrieve their online purchases in stores, instead of getting them shipped to their homes. This would relieve the company's distribution centres.

Old Navy CEO Nancy Green, meanwhile, said the budget apparel chain is shipping more products directly from stores to customers' homes.

But it is clear that this year is different. Levi Strauss & Co CEO Chip Bergh has said he is concerned enough about the potential crunch around the holidays that he may move the guaranteed ship-by date earlier than usual.

That means the window of time around the holidays in which shipping times are not guaranteed, due to the high volume of orders, would start earlier this year.

Data showed companies have cause for concern. More than half of United States shoppers said they would not buy from a store again if they were unsatisfied with the delivery experience, according to a September survey from Accenture. Online sales are expected to spike 33 per cent to US$189 billion (S$254 billion), testing the limits of fulfilment networks across the US, according to Adobe Analytics.

Shares of Amazon.com and essential retailers such as Target and Walmart have gained this year, while department stores and many apparel chains have slumped amid declining sales.

Many of these non-essential retailers closed down during the lockdown earlier this year and used that time to refine their e-commerce operations with an eye on the holiday season.

But Fitch's Mr Silverman said he is concerned that new programmes adopted by retailers may not be precise enough for them to accurately report inventory and limit delays and snags, which could potentially impact sales.

Additionally, consumer habits are changing dramatically during the pandemic, and many industry observers said that shifts towards e-commerce and socially distanced shopping methods could be permanent. So if shoppers do not have a good experience, retailers risk losing them for good.

Department stores, in particular, want to keep shoppers happy. It has been one of the worst performing areas in retail, and Macy's and Kohl's have shed more than US$7 billion in market value this year. The mandatory lockdowns erased millions in sales earlier this year.

Big-box stores Walmart and Target, which have benefited from pantry loading this year, also report quarterly results this week. The latest round of disclosures is expected to shed light on how retailers are handling shipping and higher demand in the final weeks of the year.

Companies should be ready for a flood of shoppers picking up orders, both inside stores and outside in the parking lot. Analysts at Adobe Analytics expect pick-up lines to lengthen as Christmas approaches and usage of pick-up options to spike 40 per cent compared with last year, surpassing standard mail shipping as the most popular buying option.

At the same time, higher levels of e-commerce will strain traditional carriers like FedEx and United Parcel Service, which retailers fear may limit shipping capacity from stores as orders ramp up.

Both companies are preparing for elevated demand at the end of the year amid a rise in e-commerce.

BLOOMBERG