Elon Musk’s X ad sales in 2023 projected to slump to about $3.4 billion

SAN FRANCISCO – Billionaire Elon Musk’s X, the social network formerly known as Twitter, is on track to bring in roughly US$2.5 billion (S$3.35 billion) in advertising revenue in 2023 – a significant slump from prior years, according to people familiar with the matter.

X generated a little more than US$600 million in advertising revenue in each of the first three quarters of the year, and is anticipating a similar performance in the current period, according to a person familiar with the numbers. This compares with the more than US$1 billion a quarter in 2022.  

Ad sales currently make up between 70 per cent and 75 per cent of X’s total revenue, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. This would imply 2023 sales of roughly US$3.4 billion, including sales from subscriptions and data licensing deals. 

The previously unreported sales figures underscore with greater clarity advertisers’ unease with how X is handling content moderation under Mr Musk and, in particular, the new owner’s posts accused of amplifying anti-Semitic and other extremist views.

X executives had originally targeted US$3 billion in revenue from advertising and subscriptions in 2023, but will fall far short of that number, one of the people said.

The annual number is still in flux because the holiday quarter is not yet over. 

“This presents an incomplete view of our entire business, as the sources you’re relying on for information are not providing accurate and comprehensive details,” said Mr Joe Benarroch, head of business operations for X.

The company stopped reporting public financial data after Mr Musk’s October 2022 takeover. Mr Benarroch described X as an “evolving new global business with multiple revenue streams”.

“We are not Twitter any longer and not measuring ourselves by old Twitter metrics – both in revenue and user metrics,” he said.

X has historically relied on advertising for the bulk of its sales, but that business has been in decline since the takeover.

Mr Musk has confirmed that sales are down considerably. In March, he said that ad revenue was down “roughly 50 per cent”, a statistic he echoed again in mid-July, without giving a timeframe.

In September, he also confirmed that United States ad revenue was down 60 per cent. He blamed the decline on activists who had encouraged marketers to halt spending on the service.

The company also makes money from its subscription service, X Premium, and from data licensing agreements. External estimates peg the subscription business at less than US$120 million annually.

In 2021, X (then Twitter) generated US$572 million in revenue from data licensing deals. It was not profitable when Mr Musk took over, but the company reported more than US$5 billion in revenue the year before he acquired the company. In early 2021, Twitter executives led by then-chief executive officer Jack Dorsey set a public goal to reach US$7.5 billion in revenue by the end of 2023.

Instead, Mr Musk has slashed costs and unintentionally spooked many of the service’s brand-conscious marketing partners. He routinely posts controversial statements to his 165 million followers, and has reversed several bans of users who violated policies – most recently, conspiracy peddler Alex Jones. 

In November, Mr Musk voiced his support for an anti-Semitic post, leading several major advertisers, including Apple and Walt Disney, to pause spending. He later apologised, but at a conference at the end of November, he criticised advertisers who were boycotting the service and said pulling their money amounted to blackmail.

Mr Musk previously told employees and investors that he would like subscription revenue to make up half of the company’s total business, but the service has just over one million paying subscribers, far fewer than he had initially hoped for, according to a person familiar with the numbers.

X has been trying to move away from its reliance on major brand advertisers, and recently started courting more small and medium-sized businesses to the platform.

Mr Musk, at November’s DealBook conference, said he feared the decline in ad revenue could cause the company to fail. BLOOMBERG