Aluminium and steel the most exposed metals to Trump tariffs: Citi
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The US gets about 70 per cent of its aluminum from abroad, with 60 per cent of that from Canada.
PHOTO: NYTIMES
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NEW YORK – Aluminium and steel will be the most impacted metals under US President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose 25 per cent tariffs on imports from top suppliers Canada and Mexico, according to Citigroup analysts.
The two US trade partners are the biggest providers of the metals to the US and Trump’s plan to levy tariffs on imports of the metals will result in higher steel and aluminium prices across the country, according to analysts led by Mr Alexander Hacking.
The US gets about 70 per cent of its aluminium from abroad, with 60 per cent of that from Canada. Steel imports account for 24 per cent of the American supply, with Canada providing a quarter of the amount and Mexico about 15 per cent.
A 25 per cent tariff as announced by Trump on Nov 25 would likely cause steel prices to rise by US$100 (S$134) to US$150 a short ton (907kg), the analysts said in a Nov 26 note.
For US aluminium prices, the Midwest premium over that of the London Metal Exchange could more than double to as much as 50 US cents more – a move that could benefit six US smelters. Still, the analysts warned “it could take years to reconfigure this supply chain”.
“Equity investors would likely be cautious in pricing duration on any windfall profits – assuming that this is seen as a negotiating tactic/temporary impact, in our view,” the analysts wrote. “During Trump’s first term administration, we saw steel buyers stockpile on tariff headlines and would expect something similar this time around.”
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has suggested her country could respond to Trump’s threatened tariffs with levies of its own, warning the economic consequences would be dire. Given that the US is a net exporter of steel to Mexico, Citigroup said any retaliatory tariffs would hurt the US mills more, especially in sheet products.
Canada counts the US as its biggest export market for metals and minerals, with aluminium, iron and steel making up almost half of metals shipments, according to the Canadian government. The northern neighbour exported about C$59 billion (S$56 billion) of metal ores, minerals and metal-and-mineral products to the US in 2022, according to Statistics Canada data. BLOOMBERG
