(BLOOMBERG) - When bankers fret about contagion, it is usually the financial kind. DBS Group Holdings is battling a different outbreak. The full-year results of Singapore's largest lender are pre-coronavirus. Still, they offer clues to what investors in banks with pan-Asian heft - including HSBC Holdings, Standard Chartered and Citigroup - should be watching.
A day before its earnings report on Thursday (Feb 13), DBS had to evacuate an entire floor of 300 people in its headquarters after one employee tested positive for the virus. Stressful as such situations are, big organisations like DBS have protocols to preserve business continuity.
The bank, which now does a growing chunk of its business online, ought to be able to supply banking services reasonably efficiently.
The main concern is whether the epidemic, which has hit its key markets of Singapore, Hong Kong and China, will sap demand for financial intermediation.
Things were looking tough even before the virus, though DBS ended the year with record earnings of $6.39 billion, a 14 per cent increase. Loans grew 4 per cent last year, slowing from 7 per cent in 2018. The Singapore mortgage business lost momentum after the government surprised the market in July 2018 by introducing measures to curb price gains.
Net interest margin peaked at 1.91 per cent in the first half before stumbling to 1.86 per cent in December, as the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates and started cutting. That's a less favourable stage than the 2003 Sars epidemic, when DBS had better margins than now.
If the top headache for trade finance in 2019 was the US-China spat, supply-chain disruptions would be this year's migraine. Assuming the outbreak is under control by summer, DBS foresees a 1 per cent to 2 per cent hit to annual revenue. But what if the public health scare lasts longer and spreads wider?
Add the risk that the Fed may be forced to cut interest rates further to deal with the fallout from the disease, and the outlook for loan pricing is dimmer than two months ago.
Singapore is expected to vigorously prime its fiscal pumps next Tuesday to support virus-hit businesses, such as hospitality and retail. With local infections climbing, DBS should assume that the first half of 2020 may be a washout in its home market. What is more relevant is whether there will be a sharp recovery, which is what happened after Sars. After dropping 13 per cent in the first half, net profit for 2003 tapered to a smaller 7 per cent fall. It almost doubled the following year.
DBS had to face Sars when its balance sheet had not fully healed from the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. Non-performing loans, which had surged to 13 per cent of the total in 1999, were still elevated at about 6 per cent in December 2002. Contrast that with 1.5 per cent bad loans at the end of last December; it is a figure that will keep coming back for scrutiny as the year progresses.
The credit quality in Singapore might still hold up, as banks proactively manage their borrowers' liquidity. United Overseas Bank, the smallest of Singapore's three home-grown lenders, said on Wednesday that it is setting aside $3 billion to provide relief, especially to small companies. Those affected will meet only interest obligations this year. Principal repayment can wait.
But DBS's regional presence could be problematic. A sharp tumble in either the over-leveraged Chinese economy, the epicentre of the epidemic, or turbulence in the frothy Hong Kong property market would put investors' focus back on provisions for bad debt. Subdued loan volumes, pricing pressures and spikes in credit costs will complete the trifecta of risks for Asian regional banks.
Globally, banks garner the biggest chunk of their near $2 trillion annual pretax profit from Asia. The growth rate of that earnings pool collapsed to just 3 per cent between 2014 and 2018 from 12 per cent in the preceding four years, according to new research by McKinsey & Co, which comes with a dire message: "Asia's banks must reinvent themselves or risk disappearing."
When the dust settles, there may be acquisition opportunities for a well-capitalised lender like DBS. That is a story for a later time. The worry right now is that customers won't be doing M&A deals because of business uncertainty and anxiety about travel and meetings. That can't be good news for investment banking fees.
Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services. He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews.