US assesses China not planning to invade Taiwan in 2027

WASHINGTON - China does not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 and seeks to control the island without the use of force, the US intelligence community said on March 18, striking a measured tone on one of the world’s biggest potential flashpoints.

The assessment in the intelligence agencies’ annual report on global threats comes as Beijing has stepped up pressure on Taiwan with frequent military drills, even as US President Donald Trump has played down the risk of Chinese military action while he is in office.

The Pentagon in late 2025 said the US military believed China was preparing to be able to win a fight for Taiwan by 2027, the centenary of the founding of its People’s Liberation Army, and was refining options to take Taiwan by “brute force” if needed.

“China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary and to counter what it sees as a US attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China’s rise, prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible,” the US intelligence agencies said in the report.

The US “assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” the report said.

It reiterated previous views that the PLA was making “steady but uneven” progress on capabilities it could use to capture the democratically governed island.

China’s embassy in Washington did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington also did not respond immediately.

Mr Trump, who has repeatedly touted his “great relationship” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, has downplayed the threat of the Chinese drills around Taiwan and said Mr Xi told him he will not attack Taiwan while the US president is in office - something Beijing has never confirmed.

China views Taiwan as its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to take the island under its control. Taiwan rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims, saying only the island’s people can decide their future.

Pressure on Japan to intensify

Despite concerns in the US and abroad about Mr Trump’s inclination to back Taiwan, his administration in December unveiled a record US$11 billion (S$14 billion) sale of weapons for the island, angering Beijing, which says such arms deals must end.

Nonetheless, some Japanese officials have worried Mr Trump may be prepared to soften support for Taiwan in pursuit of a trade accord with China, a move they fear will embolden Beijing and spark conflict in an increasingly militarised East Asia.

Tokyo had been unnerved by muted US rhetorical support for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi after her remarks in 2025 that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could bring about a Japanese military response.

Mr Trump reportedly told her privately not to escalate the ensuing diplomatic row with Beijing.

In the March 18 report, the US intelligence agencies called Ms Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan a “significant shift” for a Japanese leader, a framing that is likely to irk Tokyo just a day ahead of a delicate visit by her to the White House.

Ms Takaichi has maintained her stance was consistent with Japan’s longstanding policy.

“China is employing multidomain coercive pressure that probably will intensify through 2026, aimed both at punishing Japan and deterring other countries from making similar statements about their potential involvement in a Taiwan crisis,” the report said. REUTERS