Ruling coalition, ousted PM Khan face off in Pakistan by-elections

ISLAMABAD • Pakistan's most populous province of Punjab went to the polls yesterday for several by-elections that are a litmus test for the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, after Mr Imran Khan was ousted in April following a protracted political battle.

Mr Khan, a former cricket star, has accused the ruling coalition - comprising Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party - of colluding with the military establishment and the US to push him out, an allegation they have denied.

A victory for Mr Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) would give the former leader the renewed momentum to pressure the government to hold early elections as he touts popular support for his grievances. The next elections must be held by October next year.

Victories for the ruling coalition would give it the impetus to push through with unpopular reforms.

The country has secured a US$1.2 billion (S$1.68 billion) loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to shore up dwindling foreign exchange reserves.

The agreement will help unlock funding from other lenders.

"These by-polls are a popularity test for Khan and Sharif's government," said Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, a professor at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad.

The result "will have a decisive impact on the date as well as the outcome of the next general elections", he said.

Punjab was under the control of the PTI party until April, when then Chief Minister Sardar Usman Buzdar resigned after the federal Parliament took up a no-confidence against Mr Khan.

The PTI's subsequent nominee for the position was defeated as a faction among the party's state lawmakers voted for the PML-N's candidate instead.

Mr Khan then successfully petitioned the Election Commission of Pakistan to remove the state assembly lawmakers for illegally voting against the party's directive, leaving 20 seats vacant.

The election battle comes as Pakistan deals with the highest inflation in 13 years and as foreign exchange reserves drop to a level that is only enough to pay for less than two months of imports.

Since being sworn in, Mr Sharif has taken unpopular decisions of raising energy prices and taxes as well as reducing spending to revive its bailout programme with the IMF that would help the country to avoid a situation like Sri Lanka's.

His government received a boost last week with a drop in oil prices allowing officials to reduce fuel prices ahead of the voting.

That move has been the focus of by-election campaigns for the ruling parties in Punjab.

The province is a political stronghold for Mr Sharif, who was its chief minister three times.

His son Hamza Shehbaz is the incumbent chief minister of Punjab.

During campaigning for the by-elections, Mr Khan warned about government plans to rig the vote and described the polls as an opportunity to end dynastic family rule and the influence of the United States.

BLOOMBERG