Indonesia's Omicron subvariant wave may peak in mid-July

Indonesia, which has reported an uptick in Covid-19 cases driven by the Omicron subvariants, may see the wave peak in the second to third week of July before it starts to flatten, said Health Minister Budi Sadikin.

His forecast is based on the experience in South Africa, the first to report the emergence of the subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, which saw its wave peak in 30 days.

Indonesia's expected peak next month would see about 17,400 daily new cases, based on an assumption that the number will be about 30 per cent of that during the peak of the original Omicron variant in the third week of February, when daily new cases reached 58,000.

The seven-day average of the daily new cases rose 70 per cent to 1,688 on June 25, from 996 cases the previous week, according to government data.

However, the Omicron subvariants, which have proven more transmissible, have not caused higher hospitalisation and death rates in Indonesia.

The seven-day average of Covid-19 patients treated in hospitals' intensive care units was 188 on June 25, compared with 189 a week earlier, Health Ministry data shows. For the death rate, it is now four deaths a day, down from six.

But the positivity rate - the proportion of those found to have been infected - has climbed to 3.8 per cent, from 3.4 per cent a week earlier. Several provinces, including Jakarta and neighbouring Banten, have recorded a positivity rate of above 5 per cent.

"We will maintain the existing health protocols, accelerate booster vaccines, conduct our third sero-surveillance in late June-early July," Mr Budi said on Sunday.

Sero surveys provide estimates of population immunity due to past infection or vaccination.

Indonesia on May 18 lifted its mask mandate for outdoor activities for people except the elderly, those who are unvaccinated and those who have health conditions.

Masks must still be worn indoors, on public transportation and in crowded outdoor spaces. Some medical experts have urged the government to remain on guard against the virus.

Indonesian Doctors Association (IDI) last week called on the government to review its relaxed mask rule and reimpose mandatory polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests for domestic travel as cases rose, Kompas.com reported, citing Dr Erlina Burhan, a member of IDI's central board.

Dr Tjandra Yoga Aditama, a professor of pulmonology and respiratory medicine at the University of Indonesia, agreed with IDI, stressing that the government should increase its testing and tracking as well as genomic sequencing surveillance.

Dr Pandu Riono, an epidemiologist who was involved in earlier government-commissioned sero-surveillance surveys, said that as long as the public has high immunity - helped by vaccine boosters - and health protocols are adhered to, the spread of the virus would be under control.

More than 85 per cent of Indonesia's population has antibodies against Covid-19, based on a government commissioned sero-surveillance survey conducted between October and December last year.

It found that Indonesians had developed antibodies from a combination of Covid-19 infections and vaccinations.