KOLKATA • Already on track to overtake the US with the world's most coronavirus infections, India is bracing itself for a surge in cases as it heads into its main holiday season with an economy eased of virus restrictions.
The recent experience of the southern state of Kerala - which was praised for its initial handling of the pandemic - indicates how rapidly the situation can worsen. Reported infections there have jumped by five times since it celebrated the 10-day harvest festival of Onam in late August, far outpacing the twofold increase in cases nationally over that time.
Still, cash-short state governments are reluctant to stop people from venturing out during the money-spinning Hindu festivals of Durga Puja next week and Deepavali in mid-November.
The annual holidays are marked by family gatherings, bumper buying and the giving of gifts, from sweets and snacks to clothes and cars, generating vital income for many people.
"We will probably have more deaths out of starvation if the rural migratory population who flock to cities during the pujas (worship rituals) and earn some money during the festivities are deprived of the opportunity," said Mr Subrata Mukherjee, a Cabinet minister in the fourth-most populous state of West Bengal, which has one of India's highest Covid-19 caseloads.
"With sowing and transplanting operations of paddy being over, a large rural population is out of any economic activity now. Similarly, thousands of small traders are looking forward to some earnings."
West Bengal, where the ruling All India Trinamool Congress party is expected to face a tough challenge in next year's election from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, has allowed 42 per cent more community festival gatherings this year and doubled state financing for them.
Some doctors have accused politicians of undermining public health out of fear of upsetting religious sentiments, while Health Minister Harsh Vardhan has warned that the situation will worsen if social distancing rules are not followed.
"There is no need to congregate in large numbers to prove your faith or your religion," Mr Vardhan said in a broadcast last week.
"If we do this we may be heading for big trouble."
India has reported more than 7.3 million infections and over 111,000 deaths, though the rate of increase has slowed in recent weeks. The US has more than 7.9 million cases, with over 216,000 deaths.
But doctors in India fear fatalities could spike as bad winter air pollution may worsen the breathing difficulties that many Covid-19 patients suffer. If current trends hold, India will overtake the infection tally of the United States early next month.
Mr Rajan Khobragade, Kerala's principal health secretary, referring to Onam, said: "During the festival season, no matter what effort one takes, there is a mixing of population that happens, which is a multiplier of cases."
In the poorer and bigger West Bengal state, Dr Abhijit Chowdhury, a member of the state government's Covid-19 task force, said: "Bengal had been a thought leader in many spheres, but unfortunately the pre-puja trend is an indication of an impending hara-kiri that the people are going to commit."
"We seem to be heading for a very bad time," he warned.
REUTERS
