India mulling over 2050 target for net-zero emissions

NEW DELHI • Top Indian government officials are debating whether to set a goal to bring down the country's greenhouse gas emissions to zero by mid-century, an ambitious target that would require overhauling its coal-dependent economy.

Officials close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi are working with senior bureaucrats and foreign advisers to consider ways to meet the 2050 deadline, according to people familiar with the matter.

A 2047 target is also being considered, they said, to mark the centenary of India's independence from British rule. The people asked not to be identified because the discussions are private.

India, the world's third-biggest emitter, has come under pressure to make a net-zero pledge ahead of global climate talks in Glasgow, Scotland, this year.

Signatories of the Paris Agreement are expected to boost their commitments to slow global warming, and China - the biggest polluter and a rival of India - won international praise for setting a 2060 net-zero target last September.

The timing and scope of India's announcement could depend on pledges other nations make on April 22, when US President Joe Biden is set to gather world leaders for an Earth Day summit.

The event is the first such meeting Mr Biden will host as president, and he has asked climate envoy John Kerry to secure fresh commitments from attendees. "Every single country has to step up ambition," Mr Kerry told the BBC during his visit to Britain earlier this month. He implicitly included India while singling out "the 20 countries that are the equivalent of 81 per cent of global emissions".

Once the United States adopts a widely anticipated net-zero goal, nine of the 10 largest economies will have made pledges to neutralise emissions.

If India does so, too, it would mark a significant step towards the Paris Agreement aspiration of keeping average temperatures from rising more than 1.5 deg C above that of the pre-industrial period.

There are signs that support is growing domestically for India to set a net-zero goal.

Mr Jayant Sinha, a Member of Parliament with Mr Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, said last Friday that he had submitted a private members' Bill in Parliament that would make a 2050 target legally binding.

"A Net-Zero Bharat will not only lead to a more prosperous future for India, but it will also play a big role to save the world," wrote Mr Sinha in an opinion article for the Economic Times.

On Tuesday, Mr T.S. Singh Deo, a Cabinet minister for the eastern state of Chhattisgarh, said the area's health sector is setting a 2050 net-zero target.

"Climate change is one of the biggest challenges being faced by the world today," he wrote on Twitter. "I am pleased to make our small contribution."

In past decades, developing countries have contributed far less greenhouse gases to the atmosphere than nations that industrialised earlier. As at 2018, India ranked seventh among top historical polluters, after the US, China, Russia, Germany, Britain and Japan.

Even the Paris accord acknowledges this reality, noting that nations have "common but differentiated responsibilities".

The clause has been used to support arguments that rich countries should cut their emissions faster, allowing poorer countries to use fossil fuels for a bit longer to help them achieve the prosperity which the West has enjoyed for decades.

Some officials in the government want to see what the US says about the Paris Agreement goals at the April 22 meeting before making any commitment, including whether Western nations change the Paris goalposts in any way, the people said.

India's existing commitments are already relatively ambitious, with non-profit group Climate Action Tracker giving it the best rating among large economies. The country wants to expand renewable power to 450 gigawatts by 2030, almost five times existing capacity, and to cut emissions intensity by at least a third from 2005 levels by the end of the decade.

Achieving net-zero emissions would require India to set even more aggressive renewable energy targets, electrify not only its transport sector but also most industrial processes, find solutions for hard-to-abate sectors like construction and agriculture, and dramatically boost commitments to reduce consumption of almost every conceivable product.

With a growing population and still-industrialising economy, a net-zero goal for India will be a much bigger lift than for most economies.

Mr Modi will also need to navigate potential pushback from inside his government.

There is no consensus among ministries over the net-zero target, people familiar with the matter said, with some officials arguing India should not bow to pressure, given that its fossil fuel use is set to rise in the coming decade.

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