Thai premier race hots up after court sacks Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn

BANGKOK – The race to form a new government in Thailand intensified as political parties courted rivals for support just hours after

a court ousted Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra

for ethics violations.

Mr Anutin Charnvirakul, a businessman-turned-politician, has emerged as a front runner to head the new government after his conservative Bhumjaithai Party reached an agreement with the opposition People’s Party – the single-largest group in the 500-member House of Representatives. 

Mr Anutin said he is ready to become the new prime minister and his party has secured enough support from lawmakers to form the next government.

The Pheu Thai Party, backed by Ms Paetongtarn’s Shinawatra clan, also claimed to have enough backing to retain power although the absence of a partner with 25 members exposed the cracks within the group.

The party is also seeking the support of the People’s Party, saying it is ready to accept the conditions set by the progressive group.

A parliamentary vote to select a new premier is likely to be held from Sept 3-5. Under the Thai Constitution, a prime ministerial candidate needs the support of the majority of the sitting members in the elected Lower House. 

Any coalition taking power next is unlikely to have a strong parliamentary mandate, potentially leading to a policy paralysis at a time when Thailand’s economic outlook is worsened by the blow from US tariffs and the region’s highest household debt levels.

Mr Anutin’s party – which exited Ms Paetongtarn’s coalition in June – said it would dissolve the Parliament in four months if it succeeds in taking power. Bhumjaithai also promised to hold a referendum on amending the Constitution and take steps to resolve the Thai-Cambodia border dispute – conditions put forth by the People’s Party for its support. 

‘Return power to the people’

Bhumjaithai will seek to form a “government to manage the country during this period of security, economic, natural and social crises, all of which are affecting people’s lives and quality of life”, the party said. “The aim is to guide the nation out of the crisis and then return the power to the people through elections.”

Thailand was plunged into a renewed political turmoil when the Constitutional Court dismissed Ms Paetongtarn for ethical misconduct, the second leader it has ousted in just over a year. The judges said her remarks on a phone call with Cambodian leader Hun Sen over a border dispute undermined the national interests and the dignity of the premiership.

Ms Paetongtarn, like her immediate predecessor Srettha Thavisin, lasted just about a year in office before being booted out by the Constitutional Court. The body, set up in 1997, has now ejected five sitting Thai prime ministers linked to her father Thaksin Shinawatra, including also his sister and brother-in-law. 

The sackings highlight how the country’s conservative establishment – identified by analysts as an amalgamation of bureaucrats, the military and business elites – can thwart elected governments, disband political parties and engineer long stretches of military-backed rule. 

“The court’s removal of Paetongtarn affirms a troubling precedent of unelected judges overruling the mandate of millions,” said Mr Napon Jatusripitak, acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. “With no clear successor, Thailand risks deadlock and a leadership vacuum just as it faces economic turbulence from a US trade deal and renewed border tensions with Cambodia.”

Unravelling deal

Ms Paetongtarn’s ouster throws into doubt a compromise her father reached with his rivals that kept his hands on the levers of power. 

The deal had helped him return to Thailand after 15 years in self-imposed exile and paved the way for Pheu Thai to form a government with conservative groups, which were opposed to him previously.

Thailand’s top business group warned that any delay in the formation of a new government could disrupt budget spending and hinder trade negotiations with the US and resolution of border issues with Cambodia. The political turmoil could heighten risks for the US$550 billion (S$705.8 billion) economy and hurt investor confidence both at home and abroad, the Federation of Thai Industries said.

Foreign investors have sold a net US$2.5 billion of Thai stocks in 2025 as near-constant political instability worsens the outlook for an economy that has posted an average of 2 per cent annual growth in the past decade, far behind regional peers such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

Thailand will be hurt by shifting priorities within the incoming coalition, which could produce a government more concerned with rent-seeking ahead of the possibility of an early election than with delivering a coherent economic response, Mr Napon said.

“Beyond broader developmental outcomes such as gross domestic product growth, this spells trouble for Thailand’s already faltering economic competitiveness and for its place in the global manufacturing value chain,” he said. Bloomberg