Thai airlines ramp up fleet expansion amid looming pilot shortage

BANGKOK – Thailand’s aviation industry is set for rapid changes over the next two to three years as airlines move to expand their fleets to pre-pandemic levels – and in some cases, beyond. The move signals a surge in demand not only for pilots but also for cabin crew and other operational staff.

Vietjet Thailand chief executive Woranate Laprabang warned that the industry will become increasingly “sensitive” over the next two years, requiring airlines to be fully prepared for uncertainties.

“If Chinese tourists do not return, what will we do? Indian tourists may help offset the loss, but not completely,” he said.

“We expect Thailand to face a significant pilot shortage within the next two years, as each airline has aggressive fleet expansion plans,” he added.

Fleet expansion and pilot demand

Vietjet Thailand alone plans to recruit 320 pilots over the next four years from 2025 to 2028, in line with the airline’s fleet expansion from 18 aircraft in 2024 to a target of 50 by 2028.

The growth is aimed at supporting both domestic and international routes connecting key Thai cities with destinations across Asia, including Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam and Australia.

One-third of the new pilot demand – roughly 100 pilots – will come from student pilots, while the remaining 200 will need to be sourced from the existing market. Currently, the industry standard is 10 pilots per aircraft.

Many pilots who lost jobs during the Covid-19 pandemic are still unable to return due to expired licences, with only about half having re-entered the system.

Ticket pricing and market trends

Addressing concerns over a potential resurgence of price wars, Mr Woranate said Vietjet Thailand does not expect any in 2025 to 2026. The industry still faces a capacity shortage, with aircraft insufficient to meet demand.

Airfares have actually fallen around 5 per cent in 2025 compared with 2024, mainly due to the absence of Chinese tourists, which has also reduced domestic passenger numbers.

Vietjet Thailand reported strong advance bookings for fourth quarter 2025, particularly on Japanese routes such as Bangkok to Tokyo’s Narita airport and Bangkok to Osaka’s Kansai airport, with flights set to commence in December.

The airline aims to reclaim the No. 2 market share in the domestic sector by fourth quarter 2025 and maintain it to 2026, up from its current third-place ranking with approximately 20 per cent market share.

Bangkok Airways (BA) has reported a 4 per cent growth in advance ticket bookings for the period of September to December compared with the same period in 2024.

BA president and chief executive Puttipong Prasarttong-Osoth said the growth was largely driven by bookings to Koh Samui, which rose 7 per cent, while other domestic routes remained stable year on year.

International routes, however, saw a 3 per cent decline, particularly flights to Cambodia affected by the ongoing Thailand-Cambodia border dispute.

“Bangkok Airways has had to reduce flights on the Bangkok to Phnom Penh route from three daily flights to one,” he explained.

“The Bangkok to Siem Reap route continues with three daily flights, but we have switched from Airbus A319 jets to ATR turboprops due to lower foreign tourist demand.”

The company expects total revenue growth of around 4 per cent in 2025, close to its target.

Revenue from ticket sales is projected to be roughly in line with 2024, with an average fare of 4,200 baht (S$170) per flight across all routes.

The load factor averages 78 per cent, based on 5.7 million available seats in 2025, or an expected 4.3 million passengers, unchanged from 2024. This is below the original target of 4.7 million passengers, with operating profits expected to soften due to slowing economic growth and the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute.

“More than 80 per cent of our customers are European tourists, a market that remains strong and continues to grow this year, unlike other markets that have seen some decline,” Mr Puttipong said.

Fleet expansion plans

Bangkok Airways will maintain its fleet at 23 aircraft in 2025, the same as in 2024. The airline had initially planned to lease two additional aircraft but decided against it due to the border dispute, which has caused both Cambodian and international travellers, particularly from France, Germany and other European countries, to delay trips.

In 2026, the airline expects to take delivery of two to three Airbus A319 or A320 jets. It has also signed a contract to purchase 10 ATR turboprops, at an average cost of 600 million to 700 million baht each, with total value between 6 billion to 7 billion baht, to be delivered from 2026 to 2028.

A separate new narrow-body jet order for 20 aircraft is planned, with the tender process expected to open by late 2026 as part of BA’s five-year expansion plan.

“Fleet expansion must adapt to the aircraft supply chain, and during this period we will retire and sell older planes. All of this is aimed at reaching a fleet of 40 aircraft, matching the size BA had before the Covid-19 pandemic,” Mr Puttipong said. THE NATION/ ASIA NEWS NETWORK