TAIPEI – Taiwan’s government believes China is set to renew a charm offensive targeting “opinion leaders” to win hearts and minds as the island gears up for a presidential election in less than a year, a security agency has said in an internal report.

China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own, has long taken a carrot and stick approach to the island, threatening it with the prospect of military action while reaching out to those it believes are amenable to Beijing’s point of view.

As Taipei and Beijing gradually resume travel links halted by the Covid-19 pandemic, Taiwan’s security officials expect China to relaunch an influence campaign that, in the past, included all-expenses-paid trips to China for Taiwan politicians.

From March, the campaign will focus on invitations for “opinion leaders” to visit China, a Taiwan security agency looking into Chinese activities on the island said in the classified report, a copy of which was reviewed by Reuters.

“The Chinese Communist Party is developing its exchange programmes with Taiwan for the year. Various Taiwan-related agencies will gradually resume their invitations to Taiwan people on all levels to visit the mainland,” the agency said in the February report, citing intelligence information.

With Taiwan’s presidential vote due in January 2024, officials worry that Beijing could try to stir animosity towards the government of President Tsai Ing-wen.

China refuses to talk to the government, believing that Ms Tsai is a separatist for refusing to accept Beijing’s long-standing position that China and Taiwan both belong to “one China”.

Ms Tsai rejects China’s territorial claims and says only the island’s 23 million people can decide their future, though she has repeatedly offered talks with Beijing.

China, which has never renounced the use of force to gain control of what it calls its “sacred” territory, has over recent years ramped up pressure on Taiwan to accept Chinese sovereignty, including the staging of regular military exercises near the island.

Beijing is expected to try to use its campaign to sway the public to support political parties that are more open to “reunification”, or at least to building closer ties.

“They might want the Taiwanese to support certain political parties who support closer economic ties with the mainland,” a Taiwan security official investigating the matter told Reuters.

The official, who declined to be identified, said China could invite a range of people beyond political and business leaders in the hope of quietly promoting its political ideology.

“The exchange programmes may come in the name of sports, culture or commerce, but what we are worried about is what’s being said privately,” the official said.

The report did not single out individuals or parties that Taiwan believes could be targeted in the campaign.

But Beijing has long-standing contacts with the main opposition party, the Kuomintang or KMT, which traditionally favours close ties with China, but strongly denies being pro-Beijing.

The deputy KMT chairman visited Beijing in February for meetings with top Chinese officials, a trip the KMT said would “effectively de-escalate tensions” and improve communications.

Also in February, a group of Chinese officials made their first visit to Taiwan in three years to attend a cultural event in the capital, Taipei. The mayor, a senior KMT member, welcomed them. REUTERS