Prabowo tops popularity polls in bid for presidency

JAKARTA • Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto will run for the presidency in 2024, hoping that third time's the charm as he tops popularity surveys on the back of his strongman image and support from the country's Muslim majority.

Mr Prabowo, who leads Indonesia's third-largest party Gerindra, announced his intention on Friday.

The former special forces commander announced his candidacy more than 18 months ahead of the election to capitalise on popular support while he remains in President Joko Widodo's government.

The president, popularly known as Jokowi and who beat Mr Prabowo in the last two elections, is not able to run again due to the two-term limit.

According to a survey published in June by top newspaper Kompas, Mr Prabowo is leading with 25.3 per cent. Mr Ganjar Pranowo, the governor of Central Java, is close behind with 22 per cent, while incumbent Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan is ranked third with 12.6 per cent.

Mr Prabowo, who was once married to a daughter of former dictator Suharto, has consistently positioned himself as a strongman who can make South-east Asia's largest economy a major power to be reckoned with. Yet he struggled to defeat Mr Jokowi in the last highly-charged presidential race that was marred by identity politics.

Shortly after the tight 2019 presidential race in which Mr Jokowi won 55.5 per cent of the vote, Indonesia's Constitutional Court dismissed Mr Prabowo's allegations of systemic electoral fraud.

Mr Prabowo's candidacy is likely to draw strong support from hardline Islamic groups and parties in the more conservative regions such as West Java, West Sumatra and Aceh. These regions shored up his votes in the last election.

"It's wrong to think Indonesia could become Islamist should Prabowo come to power," said Mr Achmad Sukarsono, Singapore-based lead analyst for Indonesia at Control Risks consulting firm . "He has to coalesce because he needs the votes. He will do a lot of things that would make him look like the symbol of Islamism."

A Prabowo presidency could mean a more centralised government with greater concentration of power, said Mr Sukarsono. The politician championed this in the 2019 presidential race, saying a government with more power could effectively counter corruption.

Investors will be watching to see if a new administration with different priorities could upend Mr Jokowi's vision of a new capital city in Borneo powered by renewable energy and set to be completed by 2045.

BLOOMBERG