Parliament sitting will test Malaysia PM Ismail's grip on power

Malaysia's new parliamentary session that opens today will offer an immediate test of how stable Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob's weeks-old government is.

The Umno vice-president's administration is made up of the same parties and MPs as that of his predecessor Muhyiddin Yassin, who stepped down last month after less than 18 months in the job.

Datuk Seri Ismail inherited the slim majority and uneasy allies that led to Tan Sri Muhyiddin's downfall. But a deal to be inked with the opposition this evening could see Mr Ismail avoid the same pitfalls and stay in power.

Already, his government has backed away from tabling a confidence motion despite the King decreeing that the person appointed to succeed Mr Muhyiddin should affirm his legitimacy via such a vote in Parliament.

But Mr Ismail will face other votes, where anything short of 110 ayes from the 220 sitting MPs could cast doubt on his leadership.

Potential trouble spots include the already-controversial appointment of a new Deputy Speaker and a possible move to oust existing Speaker Azhar Harun.

Another vote to watch would be on the 12th Malaysia Plan, a crucial five-year development blueprint that has already been delayed by a year due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

"Ismail will try to signal that the worst of the Covid-19 and political crises are now behind Malaysia, and that the government is focusing on recovery," risk analyst Eurasia Group's Asia director Peter Mumford told The Straits Times.

"However, the risks of instability have not disappeared and they may limit how much substantive reform can be done before the next election."

Mr Muhyiddin just about managed to get his budget passed in December. Then in January, as defecting Umno MPs put his majority in doubt, he declared a state of emergency. This effectively suspended Parliament and delayed its annual reopening in March.

As soon as the emergency ended on Aug 1, however, more Umno lawmakers led by party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi pulled their support, forcing Mr Muhyiddin to resign a fortnight later.

In the weeks since taking office on Aug 21, Mr Ismail has been working to ensure he is not held to ransom in the same way. Within days, he reached out across the aisle to Pakatan Harapan (PH) to secure the main opposition pact's support in exchange for a raft of institutional reforms.

The two sides said yesterday that a "memorandum of understanding" would be signed today, with official sources telling ST it would be a confidence-and-supply-agreement (CSA) in substance.

This would entail PH's 89 lawmakers not opposing Mr Ismail in votes that are considered to be tests of his majority, such as the budget to be tabled at the next parliamentary meeting on Oct 29.

Such an agreement would bolster his government, which has 114 MPs in the 222-seat Parliament, of which two seats are vacant.

However, the Premier has hedged his bets by also trying to appease camps within his ruling pact.

He retained most of the team appointed by Mr Muhyiddin, and even handed his predecessor the chair of the Covid-19 National Recovery Council (NRC). The former premier still leads the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, the largest grouping in government.

"Ismail seems to be playing safe instead of courting the opposition to back him," political scientist Wong Chin Huat told ST, pointing to the pro-Muhyiddin appointments. "But his nomination of Ahmad Maslan as Deputy Speaker suggests he may also be cutting a peace deal within Umno," he added, referring to the Umno secretary-general who is loyal to party chief Zahid. Both Umno leaders face corruption charges.

While these deals potentially shore up his position, Mr Ismail is not out of the woods yet.

PH had last Saturday asked for a whopping RM45 billion (S$14.6 billion) to be added to funds aimed at containing the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Such demands could yet scupper hopes that the coalition would either abstain from voting or support the Premier in crucial tests of his majority.

PH had also earlier voiced second thoughts about a CSA after Mr Ismail's refusal to hold a confidence vote and Mr Muhyiddin's elevation to NRC chief.

There was also disquiet over Mr Ismail's offer to former premier Najib Razak, who is appealing against a graft conviction, to advise the government on the economy.