Myanmar crisis: Asean response splits region

Asean's response to the Myanmar crisis has divided public opinion in South-east Asia, with those who approve of its approach only slightly outnumbering those who say it has not managed to resolve a key regional challenge.

South-east Asia also appears to approve of the rising stature of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and the new Aukus security pact to provide nuclear-powered submarines to Australia amid perceptions that China's presence in the region needs to be balanced.

The findings are from the annual State of South-east Asia survey released yesterday by the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute. Now into its fourth edition, the survey was conducted over the last two months of last year and captured views from the region's policymakers, researchers, businessmen, media and civil society activists.

The release of the findings coincided with the start of a two-day retreat of Asean foreign ministers in Phnom Penh yesterday to discuss issues including the crisis in Myanmar where a military coup ousted an elected government last February.

The survey showed that 37 per cent of the 1,677 respondents approved of Asean's handling of the crisis while around 33 per cent disapproved and about 30 per cent remained neutral.

After the coup and its violent aftermath, Asean took the unprecedented action of barring junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing from its leaders' summit last year. It repeatedly called for a constructive dialogue among all parties but has not managed to win meaningful concessions from the junta.

Of those who approved of Asean's crisis management, 42.5 per cent felt that it had taken active steps to mediate. But among those who disapproved, 45.5 per cent thought Asean was not responding fast enough, with the most dissatisfaction seen in Myanmar (78.8 per cent), Thailand (39.3 per cent) and Singapore (37 per cent).

The crisis has put Asean's unity as well as its centrality to the test, noted the survey.

At a webinar to discuss the findings, Professor Chan Heng Chee, Singapore's Ambassador-at-Large and chairman of ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute's Board of Trustees, questioned if Asean could have reacted faster and harder.

She said: "On the humanitarian aspects, Asean can act faster. But could it have been harder? There are institutional reasons why Asean cannot move as fast because we have a consensus approach. Our Constitution does not allow us to suspend or expel a member state. Asean came up with the consensus principle because it makes 10 countries comfortable. Change that and I don't know if we can keep the members together.

"I get that young people in Myanmar want us to move faster. But this is the only Asean we have, you deal with what you can."

The survey also provided a glimpse of attitudes towards the Quad, the loose grouping through which the United States, Japan, Australia and India coordinate their response on security, economic and health challenges in the Indo-Pacific. Some 58.5 per cent of the respondents welcomed potential cooperation with the Quad in areas like vaccines and climate change.

The Aukus alliance, founded last September, evoked a milder response. Some 36 per cent of respondents felt that the trilateral security arrangement between Australia, the United Kingdom and the US will help balance China's growing military power. But 22.5 per cent believed it would escalate the regional arms race. Some 18 per cent said it would weaken Asean centrality, the organisation's ability to call the shots in its own region.

Professor Evelyn Goh of the Australian National University was struck by findings that people in Asean thought of Aukus as another avenue for balancing China. "We tend to be open to different ideas of how to temper potential excesses of power in the region," she said.

On fears that great power rivalry could erode Asean centrality, Prof Chan pointed out that the antidote lay in unity. "When Asean sticks together, the major powers change their language," she noted. "When the Quad started, Asean had qualms about its containment of China. The language has changed, it's now about delivering public goods, inclusive of coalitions and initiatives."

"Asean likes a Goldilocks policy," she said. "If it gets too hot, they want major powers to retreat a bit. If it gets too cold, they want them to come in."

The discussion was moderated by ISEAS director and chief executive Choi Shing Kwok.

Overall, the region's most pressing concerns remain the pandemic's threat to health (75.4 per cent), followed by unemployment and economic recession (49.8 per cent), and the impact of climate change (37 per cent).

China is still perceived as the most influential economic power by 76.7 per cent of the respondents, a consistent finding since the first survey in 2019. Lagging far behind are the US (9.8 per cent) and Asean (7.6 per cent).

China also remains the most influential political and strategic power (54.4 per cent), followed by the US (29.7 per cent) and Asean (11.2 per cent).

Although Japan suffered a drop in its ratings, it remains the most trusted major power, with 54.2 per cent voting for it, followed by the US (52.8 per cent), and the European Union (48.5 per cent).