Experts urge caution over Klang Valley 'victory'

Hospitals in the Klang Valley in Malaysia are claiming victory in the war against Covid-19, with one doctor going so far as to declare that the floor is now visible because of fewer dead bodies.

But experts remain sceptical, saying it is too early to tell if things have indeed turned around.

New daily infection numbers nationwide on Monday fell to 17,672, but this went up to 20,837 yesterday. Malaysia registered a daily record of 23,564 new infections last Friday.

The situation is worsening in a number of states, including Sabah, Penang, Johor, Kelantan and Perlis, all of which saw record highs for Covid-19 cases yesterday.

But admissions to hospitals in the Klang Valley have dropped. Tengku Ampuan Rahimah Hospital, which witnessed scenes of overcrowding last month, reported a 50 per cent decline in daily admissions this month. But the number of patients in intensive care and fatalities nationwide remained high, at 1,063 and 211 respectively yesterday. There were 40 brought-in-dead (BID) cases.

Professor Datuk Awang Bulgiba Awang Mahmud, the government's Covid-19 Epidemiological Analysis and Strategies Task Force chairman, noted that the seven-day incidence density for Selangor and Kuala Lumpur has not changed much and is still hovering between 600 and 700 per 100,000 population.

"The only thing which appears to be getting better is bed utilisation as it appears to be decreasing in KL, Putrajaya and Negeri Sembilan. I am not sure whether this is due to the new policy of home isolation and virtual CAC rather than isolation in a hospital or due to fewer Category 3 to 5 patients," he told The Straits Times. CAC refers to Covid-19 assessment centres.

The number of patients visiting CACs dropped by around 30 to 50 per cent earlier this month following the implementation of virtual assessments from July 26. This allowed those who were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms to forgo a physical check-up and self-quarantine at home.

"I would therefore be a bit cautious and wait for a more sustained decline before concluding that things are already improving," said Prof Awang Bulgiba.

Professor Sazaly Abu Bakar, director of the Tropical Infectious Diseases Research and Education Centre at Universiti Malaya, said: "If the trend continues, perhaps it is true that things are getting better. But we need to keep up our vaccination rate to achieve 80 per cent of our population."

But there are also concerns over vaccine supply, with reported shortages in Johor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan.

As at Aug 18, Malaysia has only received some 34 per cent of the doses it has ordered.

As at Monday, 56.9 per cent of the adult population has been fully vaccinated and 78.9 per cent has received at least one dose.

"I worry about the vaccination progress, especially in the Klang Valley, and this is probably the single most critical factor in determining how many cases we will be seeing in the weeks to come," said Prof Awang Bulgiba.

"The community that is being missed especially in the Klang Valley are undocumented migrants. Estimates of the true number of undocumented migrants vary widely. But I think it is safe to say that infections among these undocumented migrants will form a very important continuing source of infection if we only vaccinate known registered migrants and Malaysians."

There are an estimated two million undocumented migrants in Malaysia.