Anwar-led opposition faces sliding fortunes in Sarawak poll

KUALA LUMPUR (BLOOMBERG) - Voters in Malaysia's biggest state are set to reject the opposition alliance in elections on Saturday (Dec 18), increasing pressure on Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to step aside as de facto leader and forcing a rethink in strategy ahead of a national vote that might be called as soon as next year.

Some 1.25 million voters in Sarawak will elect 82 lawmakers to the state assembly in the polls that were delayed due to a five-month Covid-19-induced emergency that lifted in November.

The polls are expected to present another major defeat for Mr Anwar's Pakatan Harapan (PH). That is a given because the local parties that have controlled the state since independence are aligned with the ruling Umno.

The opposition was already defeated last month in a state election in peninsular Malaysia, thanks to an Umno campaign led by former premier Najib Razak, who focused on reviving a pandemic-battered economy. Najib criticised the opposition for harping on his corruption trials linked to troubled state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), although an appeals court upheld a guilty verdict soon after the polls.

Umno will not contest the Sarawak polls, preferring to back local parties in the resource-rich state. Their certain victory will help it consolidate its power after the pro-Malay party returned to the top seat of government four months ago and could bring forward the next general election that must be held by 2023.

Blaming Mr Anwar's leadership alone for PH's inability to make any headway in Sarawak would be "hoping for a quick fix, but little would change", said Dr Wong Chin Huat, a professor of political science at the Jeffrey Sachs Centre on Sustainable Development at Sunway University in Malaysia.

PH needs to transform into a policy-based coalition instead of a mere election-based alliance and form a shadow Cabinet if it wants to compete, Dr Wong said. "With a shadow Cabinet, Anwar's potential heirs will naturally emerge. Without that, a new captain without a functioning team will not keep any excitement for long."

Mr Anwar's own fortunes are also seeing a slide along with that of the opposition coalition.

There have been calls for him to resign and make way for younger leaders after the dismal showing at the Melaka state election that saw his own party completely wiped out. Mr Anwar has acknowledged the calls within the opposition coalition to step down but has brushed aside the need to do so immediately.

His Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) still backs him as the opposition leader, although internal party elections that must be held by May 2023 could see some changes.

"We don't see a change at the very top. Keadilan will have party elections soon that will see a clearer, younger line-up post-Anwar, but Anwar will still be leading the campaign for GE15," said Mr Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, a PKR lawmaker, referring to the next general election.

Mr Anwar has struggled for decades to take power in Malaysia. He was seen as Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad's successor in the 1990s before he was fired and spent six years in jail for abuse of power and sodomy. He went back to jail again in 2015 on a subsequent sodomy charge during Najib's time as prime minister.

It was only after Mr Anwar's party joined forces with other opposition groups and his old foe Dr Mahathir to unseat Umno in a shock election win that he was released, thanks to a royal pardon. But the top job still eluded him.

Dr Mahathir, who was supposed to make way for Mr Anwar to become prime minister, kept pushing back the handover date that eventually led to the unravelling of the government.

Mr Anwar and Dr Mahathir mainly tapped voter disillusionment with Umno in the 2018 elections to win big, focusing on Najib's troubles with debt-laden state fund 1MDB. This holds little traction in rural Sarawak then and now, as pledges on building roads and raising incomes are the main issues.

"It is very, very difficult to dislodge the government there," said Professor James Chin at the University of Tasmania. "That's mainly because much of Sarawak is made up of small villages patronised by government-aligned chiefs who dictate which parties the voters should support," he said.

Elections in Sarawak are often an opportunity for voters to get cash and food handouts from the ruling parties in exchange for their support at the ballot box, which is illegal by a law that is rarely enforced.

While the opposition has been unable to agree on who should lead their campaign for the Sarawak elections, there has been consensus on seat allocations and they have been campaigning separately under a looser platform.

Some in PH see that as a good road map for the next national elections, a reversal from the coalition's earlier strategy to contest under Mr Anwar's party logo in the 2018 polls.

"Component parties should highlight their own manifestos and use their own logos," said Mr Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad. The opposition is going into Sarawak as "very much the underdogs", he added, a scenario similar to the future national polls.