Tight election race could spell trouble for Japan's new PM

TOKYO • Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could lose its majority in Sunday's general election, polls show, potentially turning new leader Fumio Kishida into another short-term prime minister and triggering a return to political uncertainty.

The LDP, which has ruled Japan for most of the post-war era, will likely stay in power, thanks to its coalition with junior partner Komeito, although it is almost certain to lose seats in Parliament's powerful Lower House.

Mr Kishida, a former banker who has failed to invigorate voters with calls for a more equitable "new capitalism", has set a coalition target of a majority 233 seats in the 465-seat Lower Chamber, well below the 276 seats the LDP held.

The focus remains on whether the LDP can hang on to a majority by itself. A lacklustre result for Mr Kishida, who is just weeks into the job, could lead to a push in the party to oust him ahead of next year's Upper House vote. That could also bring policy uncertainty.

"A weak showing for the LDP could give more say for the dovish Komeito, acting as a brake on the conservative security policies popular with the LDP's right wing," said Nihon University political science professor Tomoaki Iwai.

A poll by the Yomiuri daily predicted the LDP would come close to a majority but may fall short. Another recent poll by the Asahi daily predicted the party would lose seats but come in well above 233.

In a rare move, opposition parties have been successful in coordinating candidates in a large number of districts. "The opposition collaboration in single-seat districts is remarkable. It means that votes that would previously be split among several candidates are now going to one, giving the opposition a realistic chance," said Dr Iwai.

Sunday's election is the most unpredictable since the LDP swept back to power under Mr Shinzo Abe in 2012 - a victory that ushered in the longest premiership in Japan's history and ended years of policy paralysis caused by revolving-door premiers.

Voters are frustrated with the ruling bloc after 20 months of pandemic-induced restrictions and a sluggish economy. After Mr Abe stepped down in ill health last year, he was succeeded by Mr Yoshihide Suga who resigned last month due to widespread disapproval of his handling of the pandemic.

The party may have also hurt itself by choosing Mr Kishida to succeed Mr Suga, rather than the popular Taro Kono from its liberal wing.

The opposition, too, has failed to get traction. Mr Yukio Edano, leader of the largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, fares even below Mr Kishida's suitability ratings.

With about 40 per cent of the electorate still undecided and one of the lowest turnouts in the post-war era expected, the outcome is far from certain.

The LDP resoundingly lost in a special Upper House election on Sunday in Shizuoka, south-west of Tokyo, despite two visits by Mr Kishida to woo voters there.

He has struggled to explain how his economic programme - aimed at reducing the wealth gap - differs from the "Abenomics" remedy of his predecessors of using massive monetary and fiscal stimulus to revive the moribund economy.

He has also taken on many of Mr Abe's conservative security policies, calling to double defence spending with an eye on China.

Key battlegrounds include the third-largest city of Osaka, the manufacturing hub of Nagoya and the capital Tokyo, where several current and former LDP ministers are vulnerable to opposition challenge.

Polls suggest the turnout will be slightly higher than the post-war record low of 52.66 per cent in 2014.

REUTERS