BEIJING • Pork prices have been sent soaring and herds devastated as African swine fever tears through China's massive pig-farming industry, forcing the country to ramp up imports to satisfy demand - but analysts warn worse is yet to come.

More than 1.1 million pigs have been culled so far as the authorities scramble to contain the virus that has spread to neighbouring countries since the first cases emerged in August last year and for which there is no vaccine.

But the figure is widely believed to be much higher, as official data shows China's pig herd totalled 347.6 million in the first half of the year, down 60 million from the same period last year.

Pork prices soared by a fifth in June alone.

"The worst is yet to come," said Mr Jan-Peter Van Ferneij, who monitors foreign markets at the French Pork Institute. "For now, it's the numbers (of pigs) that are falling. Then it will be production... and consumption will fall," he said.

Swine fever does not, however, affect humans. Butchers have been seeking to reassure consumers that their meat is safe in the country that produces and eats more pork than anywhere else in the world.

"Look at this blue stamp," a seller at the Sanyuanli market in Beijing said, pointing to the seal from the health authorities showing that the pork is safe. "Here's the certificate that goes with it," she said.

Standing in front of pork chops and ribs, Ms Feng Shuyue recalled that people were "scared" of buying the meat last year, when the epidemic spread across the country.

"Today, people are not afraid at all... because the (health) controls are very strict," Ms Feng said.

To meet demand, Beijing has increased pork imports, with shipments from the European Union rising 37 per cent between January and April, according to European Commission figures.

Brazil has also become a big source of imports.

China is importing only frozen pork and the meat is going to larger cities, said Mr Van Ferneij.

Prices, meanwhile, could go up as much as 40 per cent in the next six months, according to a Nomura Bank assessment.

The authorities have sought to reassure the public. Earlier this month, agriculture officials said production was "slowly recovering", with 44 new incidents of fever detected over the past seven months, compared with 99 from August to December last year.

Still, the malady is far from over.

Another outbreak was reported on Wednesday in Sichuan, with 21 pigs infected in a farm of 102 pigs.

An April report by Dutch financial group Rabobank said African swine fever was affecting up to 200 million pigs, and the expected 30 per cent loss in pork production was almost a third larger than the annual US pork production.

Transporting animals across China has led to the spread of the virus. If trucks are not systematically disinfected, animals will come into contact with the disease as soon as they are transported, Mr Van Ferneij said.

Preventing the proliferation of the virus is complicated because there are many small, family-run pig herds in China.

African swine fever is particularly hurting these smaller operators, said Professor Wang Xiaoying at the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Industrial producers are faring better, "thanks to strict preventive measures", Prof Wang said.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE