News analysis: Top Chinese doctors hint at easing of tight virus controls

Two top Chinese infectious diseases specialists have in recent days hinted that the country could be moving towards easing its zero-tolerance policy towards Covid-19 as more of the population gets vaccinated.

In what appears to be a test balloon for future easing, the comments have faced relatively little pushback and have been allowed to remain online, even as the official narrative is still that the muscular measures in place for almost two years are the only way to go for now.

In separate interviews, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention head George Gao and top epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan said that as China closes in on an 85 per cent vaccination rate, its strict control measures could possibly start to ease up.

"I don't think China can go on like this for a long time because this is a worldwide disease, and China and the world must work together to overcome it," Dr Zhong told the Southern People Weekly magazine last month.

He noted that as measures like long quarantine and strict lockdowns in response to outbreaks continue, even the strictest methods would not work well because of the burden on the system and the people.

"It is necessary for countries, especially large countries, to have relatively low infections, a relatively high rate of vaccination (between 80 per cent and 85 per cent), and a lower mortality rate. Only then can (the country) be completely opened up."

China is still closed to tourists and issues visas only to selected individuals. Even then, those who enter the country must be quarantined for between 14 and 21 days, and undergo numerous Covid-19 tests. China also does not allow people to do self-tests at home, in a bid to ensure positive results will not go unreported.

Meanwhile, Dr Gao told Caijing magazine that should vaccination rate hit 85 per cent early next year, there is a chance for China to "open its doors". Noting that it is a "highly sensitive" issue, he said there are still many who oppose vaccines and opening-up and even reject treating Covid-19 like the seasonal flu.

"China's zero-tolerance strategy has won us much time to allow us to develop and administer large amounts of vaccines, which means we could have a vaccination rate of above 85 per cent by early 2022," he said. By then, with most of the country vaccinated, the infected exhibiting mild symptoms and the death rate low, there is little reason not to reopen the borders, he said.

"When (the fight with the virus) is going to be a protracted war, then surely there needs to be a long-term strategy. So if you don't try to co-exist with the virus, is there any other way?"

In recent months, fatigue and complacency have set in as some tire of the "at war" narrative while being lulled into a false sense of security by scenes of life being largely back to normal in China.

This - and a more infectious Delta variant - resulted in slip-ups, including an outbreak that started in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, over the summer holidays and spread to other provinces, and a more recent cluster in Fujian province. Both were rapidly dealt with through strict lockdowns, harsh quarantines and mass testing.

Yesterday, China reported 10 new cases, all of them imported.

The muted response to the two experts' comments was a stark contrast to the criticisms over earlier comments by another infectious diseases expert, Dr Zhang Wenhong.

In August, he was criticised for "pandering to foreign ideas" after he suggested co-existing with Covid-19. He was later probed for plagiarism in his dissertation but cleared of all charges.

Yet even as China starts to mull over easing restrictions, a calendar packed with high-profile events means Beijing will be keen to avoid any large-scale outbreak.

The Winter Olympics in February next year are set to be tightly controlled, with participants having to be fully vaccinated or face a 21-day quarantine, along with daily tests. A twice-in-a-decade Party Congress next November also means virus controls could possibly remain firmly in place for a while more.

For younger Chinese, however, seeing other countries opening up to vaccinated travellers has been difficult.

"Some of my friends in South-east Asia can now go to Europe and it makes me very envious," said social media executive Rita Li, 29, who used to go on yearly summer shopping holidays.

Ms Li, who said she can travel on a business visa, has been put off by the 21-day quarantine required of her when she returns to Beijing.

"When everyone was in lockdown, it didn't feel so bad, but now that others are opening up, I feel like I'm missing out."