Four veteran politicians from Japan's ruling party filed their bids yesterday in the race to succeed Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, with voting set for Sept 29.
Unlike last year's streamlined Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) election after Mr Shinzo Abe's sudden resignation due to health reasons, this year's contest follows the traditional format in which both Diet lawmakers and rank-and-file members across the 47 prefectural chapters can get their say.
Given the LDP's majority in both chambers of the Diet, its leader will likely become the country's next prime minister. The Diet is expected to convene on Oct 4 to choose the new premier.
The candidates are Mr Taro Kono, 58, administrative reform and vaccination minister; Mr Fumio Kishida, 64, former foreign minister; Ms Sanae Takaichi, 60, former internal affairs and communications minister; and Ms Seiko Noda, 61, the LDP's executive acting secretary-general.
They are united on the need for more compassionate policies that will ease public concerns and uplift society. This seems to be in response to criticism of how the LDP, under Mr Suga, has been seen as out of touch with everyday concerns of the Japanese.
Yet their policy platforms differ on issues such as the Covid-19 exit strategy, for which they offered different ideas, from revising laws and recognising antigen testing for safe events to building field hospitals for the next Covid-19 spike.
Ms Noda, an 11th-hour candidate, said women will comprise half her Cabinet if she were prime minister. She is also the only candidate who has vowed to reopen a probe into Abe-era cronyism scandals that have hurt public trust.
The stakes are high in this election to pick the LDP's leader for the next three years, as a general election must be held by November.
The reform-minded Mr Kono will be the shoo-in choice if members of the public can get their say at the party poll, as he routinely tops media surveys of their choice for the next prime minister.
However, experts warn that the outcome is not that clear-cut within the LDP, given the proxy struggles for influence and backroom wheeling and dealing.
A non-binding survey of LDP lawmakers by the Yomiuri Shimbun yesterday showed Mr Kono and Mr Kishida in a dead heat, with Ms Takaichi close behind, out of the six in 10 who have decided who to vote for. The rest have not yet decided how to cast their votes.
There are 766 votes at stake, with the 383 Diet lawmakers each getting one vote and the other 383 ballots divided among the 47 prefecture chapters.
Unless a candidate secures at least 50 per cent of the vote, there will be a run-off contest between the top two vote-getters.
In the second round, parliamentarian votes will carry more weight as each of the 383 lawmakers will get one ballot, while the 47 prefecture chapters will each have one vote, for a total of 430 at stake.
In 2012, Mr Abe won fewer votes in the first round than former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, but eventually prevailed in the second round in the one-to-one battle.
What is different this year is that aside from the faction headed by Mr Kishida, with 46 members, the other major factions have allowed their members to vote as they wish instead of along faction lines.
Still, the factions have given clear "recommendations". Mr Abe, who retains huge influence in the LDP, on Thursday openly endorsed Ms Takaichi for her "concrete policies" with a strong national outlook that has "captured the world's attention".
He is the de facto leader of the Hosoda faction - the largest with 96 lawmakers - which has recommended either Ms Takaichi or Mr Kishida.
Mr Kono belongs to a faction led by Finance Minister Taro Aso but has not won unequivocal support for his candidacy. The Aso faction has recommended either Mr Kono or Mr Kishida.
LDP lawmaker Masaaki Taira told Bloomberg News: "Chaos is good... A chaotic leadership election means the new administration won't carry on with the previous government's policies, and must put together its own package. It means progress."
The four candidates will have a policy debate at the Japan National Press Club today.
