Experts warn Hong Kong cases could hit 28,000 a day

HONG KONG • The Hong Kong authorities reported 986 new coronavirus infections yesterday as they scrambled to contain an outbreak which experts warn could see 28,000 daily cases by the end of March, with the unvaccinated elderly a particular worry.

The rise in cases, up 10-fold since Feb 1, is proving to be the biggest test for the global financial hub's "dynamic zero" policy of virus suppression.

Chief Executive Carrie Lam has said she was "deeply sorry and anxious" as residents, including the elderly and children, queued for hours at testing centres and to enter isolation facilities after daily infections doubled to 1,161 cases on Wednesday.

Following mainland China, Hong Kong is trying to curb outbreaks as soon as possible, in contrast with other places that are trying to "live with Covid-19", relying on high vaccination rates to bring protection while easing curbs.

The fast-spreading Omicron variant is testing both approaches though experts have said Hong Kong's strategy looks increasingly unsustainable with cases rising.

Writing on her official Facebook page, Mrs Lam said the government was working hard to enhance testing capacity and that the fast-spreading infections, hitting places like elderly care homes, were the last thing she wanted to see.

"Citizens have to wait for a long time to receive testing and a large number of people who have tested positive have been waiting for a long time for isolation facilities," she said. "I am deeply sorry and anxious."

She said the city was not able to try to live with the virus because more than 50 per cent of the elderly have not been vaccinated.

About 82 per cent of the city's residents have had at least one vaccine shot but many elderly people have been hesitant to get jabbed. Three elderly people have died this week from coronavirus, the authorities said yesterday.

Hong Kong has reported more than 4,000 infections over the past two weeks, compared to just two in December, taking its tally to more than 18,000 since the outbreak began in 2020, with 216 deaths - figures that are much lower than those in other major cities around the world.

The city could see 28,000 new cases a day by the end of March with its tally of deaths rising to 1,000 by June, health experts from the University of Hong Kong said this week.

The experts modelled scenarios that they said indicated that Hong Kong could only return to a "zero-Covid" state if the entire city was locked down for two to three months.

The authorities have responded to the latest surge with the toughest suppression measures yet, despite an increasing social and economic toll on the city's 7.5 million residents.

Public gatherings of more than two people are now banned, while gatherings in homes have been restricted. The rules add to already strict measures that have forced restaurants to close from 6pm and shut most other places - from churches to schools, gyms and cinemas.

REUTERS