Most Chinese provinces target growth of 5% or more in 2023

BEIJING - China’s provinces are almost all targeting economic growth of 5 per cent or more in 2023, after missing their goals in 2022 amid a slowdown fuelled by Covid-19 and a property slump.

Most of China’s 31 provincial-level jurisdictions – including economic powerhouses Zhejiang and Shandong – see their economies expanding between 5 per cent and 6.5 per cent in 2023 from a year ago, according to Bloomberg analysis of local government work reports.

While a faster reopening from the nation’s zero-Covid strategy is expected to boost the economic outlook in 2023, 23 of the regional growth goals are actually smaller for 2023 compared with 2022 – including several that changed their targets from “above” a certain percentage to “around” that amount.

Only five of the jurisdictions raised their targets, while another three kept them unchanged.

The targets came as at least 22 jurisdictions missed their 2022 growth targets by large margins, according to data that has been disclosed so far.

On a national level, senior Chinese officials have debated setting an economic growth target of around 5 per cent for 2023, Bloomberg has reported.

That would be slightly lower than the “around 5.5 per cent” goal for 2022 – a target economists suspect China missed by a wide margin, with the median estimate for 2022’s growth in a Bloomberg survey reaching 2.7 per cent. Economists forecast growth of 4.8 per cent in 2023, the poll shows. 

The provincial-level targets for 2023, meanwhile, span a wide range – from a mere 4 per cent increase eyed by Tianjin, to the 9.5 per cent growth goal set by Hainan. Neither province has released comprehensive gross domestic product growth data for 2022.

Tianjin’s early estimates suggest growth may have flatlined or even contracted in 2022, while Hainan has said it likely recorded “positive growth”.

Last year’s worst performers – among those which have disclosed data – included Guangdong, Guizhou and Chongqing, which reported likely growth of around 2 per cent. All of them had Covid-19 outbreaks and strict controls to curb infections, including lockdowns. 

Better performers were Jiangxi and Ningxia, which were less affected by the pandemic and projected growth of around 5 per cent for 2022.

One theme dominating the local government work reports was the goal to boost domestic demand in 2023, a sign that the authorities want to adhere to a call from top leaders about relying on consumption and investment within the country to drive growth. The city of Chongqing, for instance, said it would “prioritise the recovery and expansion of consumption”. Anhui province vowed to “lose no time to restore and expand consumption”. Local economies are also trying to stabilise the real-estate sector after a tumultuous year. Shandong province said it would take steps to “activate the real estate market” and promote the industry’s “smooth transition” to a new development model. Henan said it would focus on ensuring home deliveries. BLOOMBERG