BEIJING - Beijing’s warm welcome to a senior Taiwanese opposition politician during his visit to the mainland is indicative of the central leadership’s hopes for cross-strait relations, analysts say, although changes are not likely to materialise in the near term.

Kuomintang (KMT) vice-chairman Andrew Hsia is on a 10-day visit to the country until Thursday.

Chinese official media have covered his visit with top officials and party leaders in Beijing, though they have left out other parts of his itinerary, including a visit to the Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum in Nanjing. 

Shortly after arriving in Beijing on Feb 8, Mr Hsia met Mr Song Tao, newly appointed head of the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), the government’s top body on policy relating to the island. 

Two days later, he had a meeting with fourth-ranked Communist Party of China (CPC) official Wang Huning. The party’s top strategist, Mr Wang is also deputy head of the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs. 

According to official reports, Mr Hsia had reiterated the party’s opposition to Taiwanese independence at the meetings. He also pledged to uphold the 1992 Consensus, a tacit agreement that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are part of one China, though what that means has been subject to different interpretations.

The meeting made the front page of the state-run People’s Daily newspaper – usually an honour reserved for visiting foreign dignitaries – in an indication of the level of importance Beijing has placed on the visit, said Associate Professor Li Mingjiang from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

“In recent years, there have been close to no cross-strait talks between both sides, so this is an opportunity for Beijing to show that it is still open to talks and exchanges,” he told The Straits Times. 

“(The Chinese government) is also trying to send a message that if conditions fit into parameters set by the mainland, various opportunities can be made possible.” 

Beijing has been irked by Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) seeking closer ties with Washington and a succession of visits to the island by international parliamentary delegations that China perceives to be supportive of Taiwanese independence.

In the past two years, it has tightened the screws economically by imposing bans on products from Taiwan, citing food safety concerns or improperly filed paperwork.

On Monday, mid-way through Mr Hsia’s visit, the TAO announced that China would soon be willing to assist in resuming imports.

Beijing has refused to speak with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen or her administration since the DPP came to power in 2016, viewing her as an independence-leaning separatist. 

Ms Tsai, however, has on numerous occasions insisted that her party does not seek independence, and that public sentiment in Taiwan is overwhelmingly against unification with the mainland.

Given that the visit follows the DPP’s recent drubbing by the KMT at local polls – when the opposition claimed 13 of the 21 city mayor and county chief seats up for grabs – Beijing’s warm reception is in some ways an expression of hope for Taiwan’s 2024 presidential elections, said Dr Qi Dongtao, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute.

“Beijing sees the election as a sign that most Taiwanese are now tired of pushing back against the mainland and are looking towards a party that can better promote cross-strait ties and economic opportunities, while the KMT wants to show that it is the party that can talk to the mainland,” said Dr Qi, who researches Taiwanese nationalism and cross-strait relations.

“In some ways, both sides have similar goals.”  

The KMT-run Taipei city government will on Saturday welcome Chinese officials from Shanghai, with the city’s Lantern Festival on the agenda – marking a resumption of low-level meetings that were common before the pandemic. 

There are hopes for a return to the warmer ties of the Ma Ying-jeou era of 2008 to 2016 should the KMT take power again, Dr Qi said.

But the CPC is also cognisant that conditions on the ground are now different from 15 years ago, given that the previous DPP president Chen Shui-bian was facing issues with corruption and had actively pushed for independence, he added. 

At the same time, the rise of the Taiwanese identity has been inexorable. According to research from Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, only 2.7 per cent of those polled identify themselves as “Chinese only”, while an overwhelming 60.8 per cent consider themselves Taiwanese.