Biden is hinting at risky policy shift on Taiwan independence, analysts say

A motorcyclist rides past pro-Taiwan independence flags in Taipei on Aug 6, 2022. PHOTO: AFP

WASHINGTON - Overshadowed by US President Joe Biden's headline-grabbing vow that American forces would defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack was his hint at possibly shifting US policy to support the island's right to self-determination.

Though the White House has taken pains to say Mr Biden's most explicit statement yet about defending the Chinese-claimed island, made during an interview broadcast on Sunday, did not signify a policy change, some analysts say he may have undercut - intentionally or not - a US stance of not taking a position on Taiwan's independence.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has long vowed to bring Taiwan under Beijing's control and has not ruled out the use of force to do so. Democratically governed Taiwan strongly objects to China's claims but says it does not need to declare independence because it is already an independent country.

US officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, have underscored this year that the United States does not support Taiwan independence.

Their assurances are a part of a non-committal policy assiduously adhered to over decades to dissuade Beijing from an unprovoked attack and convince Taiwan to not make a formal independence declaration. In Washington parlance, it is known as "dual deterrence".

But Mr Biden said on CBS' 60 Minutes programme that while he is not encouraging the move, such a decision was up to Taiwan, adding that it makes its "own judgments" about independence.

"We are not encouraging their being independent. That's their decision," he said.

Biden's remarks divide

The President's critics argue that China will perceive his comments as tacit support for an independence declaration, a red line for Beijing.

They also say Mr Biden's comments are more likely to aggravate hostilities than overt defence commitments since Beijing already likely assumes Washington will defend Taiwan.

"It is incoherent to argue that America's Taiwan policy has not changed while also claiming that the US has a commitment to fight for Taiwan, and that Taiwan makes its own judgments about independence," said Mr Craig Singleton, a China policy expert at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies.

Beijing will likely worry that Mr Biden is suggesting Taiwan can decide itself whether it is independent, he said.

White House Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell told a forum on Monday that Mr Biden's remarks "speak for themselves" after some Republicans, including Senator Ben Sasse, praised the President's comments but slammed the White House for walking them back.

"The President directly affirmed the United States' longstanding 'one China' policy," said Ms Adrienne Watson, a spokesman for Mr Biden's National Security Council.

Mr Biden also garnered support from some US allied countries, such as from the visiting Speaker of Lithuania's Parliament, Ms Viktorija Cmilyte-Nielsen, who told Reuters that Mr Biden's comments were "meaningful and timely".

"I think it's a strong statement, and it's definitely a welcome tone," she said.

'Precision of language'

Taiwan's Foreign Ministry responded to Mr Biden's remarks by expressing its "sincere appreciation" for his staunch support of the island.

China's Washington embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said the US should not send the wrong signal to Taiwan's separatist forces, lest it risk undermining peace across the Taiwan Strait and China-US relations.

Mr Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think-tank, said Mr Biden's remarks confused rather than clarified US policy.

"One issue where the precision of language is paramount is the discourse on our Taiwan policy," Mr Blanchette said.

"If we are going to make a fundamental policy shift that we are going to defend Taiwan even if it declares independence, then that's one that deserves a more robust discussion than everyone being informed on a 60 Minutes interview," he said. REUTERS

Remote video URL

Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.