Australian PM’s ‘lame silence’ on Iran bombing points to wariness about optics of Trump ties

SYDNEY – US President Donald Trump’s

surprise decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22

prompted an unusual silence this week from the leader of one of America’s closest allies, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

As the local media clamoured for a response to the bombing and critics warned that silence from Canberra could damage ties with Washington, Mr Albanese took 24 hours to finally issue a formal statement in which he endorsed the strike and called for “dialogue and diplomacy”. 

His “lame silence” – as an editorial in The Sydney Morning Herald on June 24 described it – was viewed as a lukewarm endorsement of Mr Trump’s strike, particularly from a country that proudly claims to have fought alongside the US in every major conflict since World War I.

Yet, just a day after Mr Albanese’s statement, Mr Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire on June 24 prompted a much quicker reaction. Within hours, Mr Albanese released a statement welcoming the ceasefire and calling for regional peace.

“We have consistently called for dialogue, diplomacy and de-escalation,” he said.

The Prime Minister insisted that his delayed response to the US strikes was not “slow” or “flat-footed”, saying that Australia was not a central player in the conflict.

“What my government does is act in an orderly, coherent way,” he told Sky News on June 24. “And we were very clear for some period of time that Iran could not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.”

But Mr Albanese’s delayed comments appeared to reflect a serious dilemma he faced in response to the US intervention.

On the one hand, Mr Albanese was keen to avoid damaging the alliance with the US, which could cause a domestic political backlash and could undermine his effort to acquire American nuclear-powered submarines as part of the three-way Aukus pact between the two countries and the United Kingdom.

But Mr Albanese is also wary of being seen to be grovelling to Mr Trump, who is unpopular in Australia, and is mindful that Australia – unlike Mr Trump – is staunchly committed to the international rules-based order.

Plus, there is the ever present need to consider Australia’s ties with its closest trading partner, China, and other regional neighbours that do not share Canberra’s warm ties with Washington.

Dr Ben Zala, a senior lecturer in international relations at Monash University, told The Straits Times that he believed the government’s delay occurred because “they actually did feel the need to think carefully about it”.

“It is potentially a sign of concern about the implications of Australia just joining the US on any foreign policy decision that it makes,” he said.

“In the past, the response would have been, how quickly and in what way do we support what the US is doing... It is harder to unquestioningly support the US now, when US power is contested (by China), and there is also the Trump factor.”

The Trump administration’s contempt for the international rules-based order, Dr Zala said, had led to “a nervousness about what happens if we are all the way with the USA”.

Mr Albanese’s somewhat tepid response to the US intervention in Iran also added to perceptions of potential friction in his ties with the Trump administration.

The two leaders have not yet met, and their planned meeting in mid-June, on the sidelines of a Group of Seven leaders’ summit in Canada, was cancelled after Mr Trump returned to Washington to deal with the conflict in the Middle East.

Mr Albanese is under pressure to meet the US President to push for Australia to be exempted from US trade sanctions and for some clarity on the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine deal, which the Trump administration is currently reviewing.

The US also expects Canberra to raise its defence spending to about 3.5 per cent of its gross domestic product, from about 2 per cent currently.

Opinion polls in Australia show there is strong support for its alliance with the US, but that Australians tend to oppose providing troops to fight in distant US-led wars such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan.

A Lowy Institute poll released on June 15 found that 67 per cent of Australians support acquiring nuclear-powered submarines and 32 per cent are opposed, and that 80 per cent believe the US alliance is important for Australia’s security.

But just 25 per cent of Australians trust Mr Trump to do the right thing regarding world affairs, compared with 72 per cent who do not, and 3 per cent who are uncommitted.

Professor Nick Bisley, an expert on Australian foreign policy from La Trobe University, told The Straits Times that Mr Albanese’s handling of the US intervention in Iran was “understandably cautious”.

He said the government’s “keep your head down” approach also reflected Mr Albanese’s determination to keep Australia’s foreign policy focus on the region, particularly on bolstering ties across South-east Asia and the South Pacific.

“The Middle East is not part of Australia’s core interests,” he said.

“The government didn’t want to be jumping on the grandstand cheering on a high risk proposition that could tip things in the Middle East in a dangerous way. The balance they struck is understandable.”

Prof Bisley said Mr Albanese faced the difficult task of sending a message of restrained endorsement for the US actions in Iran without risking the wrath of Mr Trump and his acolytes.

“When you’re dealing with the Trump folk, you only want to attract attention if you have to,” he said.